Islanders at Rangers 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New York Islanders

▸2

New York Rangers

FinalTV MSG+, MSG·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the New York Rangers 2-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Palmieri's goal at 17:16 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 48% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.2 to 2.5; shots on goal were NYI 28, NYR 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.5 goals saved above expected; Igor Shesterkin stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ilya Sorokin (29 saves, .967), 2. Kyle Palmieri (1 G), 3. Igor Shesterkin (26 saves, .929).

Three stars

★
I. Sorokin29 saves, .967
★★
K. Palmieri1 G
★★★
I. Shesterkin26 saves, .929

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	07	111	110	228
NYR	012	110	08	130

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

A. Lee(23)PPG
M. Barzal (27), N. Dobson (25)
snapxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
1-0
0:49
C. Kreider(40)PPG
A. Lafrenière (6), J. Trouba (21)
snapxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
1-1
13:38

3rd period

K. Palmieri(11)
R. Pulock (12), A. Pelech (17)
tip-inxG 0.10win prob +43 pts
2-1
17:16

Penalties

6 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

18:50Barclay Goodrow · Hookingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

2nd

3:26Adam Pelech · Holdingdrawn by Filip Chytil2 min
11:53Scott Mayfield · Interferencedrawn by Frank Vatrano2 min
16:47Ryan Strome · Roughingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min
18:14Brock Nelson · Interferencedrawn by Mika Zibanejad2 min

3rd

9:37Alexis Lafrenière · Slashingdrawn by Ryan Pulock2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYR

Biggest swing: Kyle Palmieri, 3rd 17:16 — NYI 48% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.5 xG · 37 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 3.2 xG · 39 att NYR

1 G · 2.5 xG · 37 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.22 G
All situations: 1 G2.5; 2.01 G
Even strength: 0 G2.0; 0.91 G
Power play: 1 G0.4; 0.30 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

61%39%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.15 – 2.52

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

28
Shots on goal: 30; 42%
Faceoffs: 58%; 1/3
Power play: 1/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 6; 21
Hits: 27; 16
Blocked shots: 9; 5
Giveaways: 10; 7
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
6R. PulockD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.01	1	2	0	—	20:47
3A. PelechD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	1	2	2	—	20:28
8N. DobsonD	0	1	1	0	2	0.05	3	0	0	—	19:47
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	2	6	2	—	19:08
27A. LeeL	1	0	1	0	2	0.24	1	1	0	—	18:37
29B. NelsonC	0	0	0	0	4	0.80	1	0	2	29	18:21
13M. BarzalC	0	1	1	0	3	0.42	0	0	0	20	18:11
33Z. CharaD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	1	0	—	18:01
44J. PageauC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	1	0	0	67	17:41
4A. GreeneD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	16:46
11Z. PariseL	0	0	0	0	2	0.20	1	1	0	—	15:25
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	0	45	15:01
18A. BeauvillierR	0	0	0	0	3	0.21	1	0	0	—	14:21
15C. ClutterbuckR	0	0	0	0	1	0.27	1	1	0	—	13:34
26O. WahlstromR	0	0	0	0	2	0.35	0	0	0	—	12:56
21K. PalmieriC	1	0	1	+1	4	0.48	0	0	0	0	12:52
12J. BaileyR	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	0	0	—	12:46
17M. MartinL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.07	5	0	0	—	09:47

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30I. Sorokin(W)	30	29	1	.967	2.54	+1.54	59:46

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at New York Rangers

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score