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Islanders at Lightning
NHL

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
1
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
FinalTV MSG+, BSSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the New York Islanders 4-1. The Islanders scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Cirelli's goal at 19:22 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 54% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.9 to 2.5; shots on goal were NYI 26, TBL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.1 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (25 saves, .962), 2. Anthony Cirelli (1 G), 3. Victor Hedman (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy25 saves, .962
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Cirelli1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    V. Hedman2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI1601208126
TBLTBL21303212428

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    M. Barzal(4)
    Z. Parise (3)
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +8 pts
    1-0
    2:53
  2. TBL
    M. Joseph(2)
    A. Killorn (7)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +8 pts
    1-1
    3:16
  3. TBL
    A. Cirelli(4)
    O. Palat (6), V. Hedman (10)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    19:22

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(6)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.19win prob +11 pts
    1-3
    13:28
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(8)PPG
    V. Hedman (11), B. Point (6)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    15:30

Penalties

NYI 30 PIM·TBL 38 PIM

1st

  • 0:04TBLPatrick Maroon · Fightingdrawn by Zdeno Chara5 min
  • 0:04NYIZdeno Chara · Fightingdrawn by Patrick Maroon5 min
  • 17:16NYIAnders Lee · Hookingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min

2nd

  • 0:19TBLCorey Perry · Trippingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
  • 12:11TBLZach Bogosian · Holdingdrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min
  • 12:56NYIBrock Nelson · Fightingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli5 min
  • 12:56TBLAnthony Cirelli · Instigatordrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
  • 12:56TBLAnthony Cirelli · Fightingdrawn by Brock Nelson5 min
  • 12:56TBLAnthony Cirelli · Misconduct10 min
  • 12:56NYIBrock Nelson · Chargingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min
  • 14:30TBLVictor Hedman · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min

3rd

  • 10:39NYIMatt Martin · Interferencedrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 14:39NYIZdeno Chara · High stickingdrawn by Boris Katchouk2 min
  • 14:39NYIZdeno Chara · Misconduct10 min
  • 14:39TBLBoris Katchouk · Misconduct10 min
  • 15:57NYIZach Parise · Slashingdrawn by Taylor Raddysh2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNYI goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli, 1st 19:22 — TBL 54% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.22B. Point · Goal · xG 0.19O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.17O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.15C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.15A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.14S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.13M. Joseph · Goal · xG 0.12C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.12P. Maroon · Missed · xG 0.11A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.11O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.09P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.09P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.08O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · Missed · xG 0.08R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.07A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.07O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.06C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.06V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.06R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.06R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.06A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.03R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.03J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.02J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.02B. Point · On goal · xG 0.02R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.02O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01C. Foote · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL4 G · 2.9 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsTBL
2.51 G
All situations
4 G2.9
2.21 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI44%56%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.51 – 2.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsTBL
26
Shots on goal
28
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/3
Power play
1/4
30
Penalty minutes
38
41
Hits
41
11
Blocked shots
12
1
Giveaways
2
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25S. AhoD000-120.03410—23:21
44J. PageauC000000.054004521:27
24S. MayfieldD000-210.04400—20:47
3A. PelechD000-120.02020—18:55
4A. GreeneD000+130.07040—18:41
18A. BeauvillierR000-120.24100—18:26
13M. BarzalC101020.244006717:17
12J. BaileyR000-100.00210—16:47
6R. PulockD000-110.01030—16:45
21K. PalmieriC000-230.31000016:43
27A. LeeL000-120.130027516:23
33Z. CharaD000000.033017—16:03
29B. NelsonC000-210.541076715:23
11Z. PariseL011+120.14202—14:05
15C. ClutterbuckR000020.1040010012:55
20K. BellowsL000010.35300—10:12
17M. MartinL000010.14702—09:59
26O. WahlstromR000010.09200—08:33
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(L)28244.8572.90-1.1060:00

Season series

TBL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).