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Predators at Stars
NHL

Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸4
Dallas Stars
2
FinalTV BSSW+, BSSO·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Dallas Stars 4-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tanner Jeannot's goal at 4:51 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 64% to 81%. Expected goals were close — NSH 1.9, DAL 2.1; shots on goal were NSH 22, DAL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 25 of 27 (.926); Braden Holtby stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tanner Jeannot (1 G, 1 A), 2. Juuse Saros (25 saves, .926), 3. Roope Hintz (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    T. Jeannot1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Saros25 saves, .926
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    R. Hintz1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH182816422
DALDAL05112110227

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    R. Johansen(5)
    T. Jeannot (2), Y. Trenin (2)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    1-0
    19:08

2nd period

  1. NSH
    T. Jeannot(5)
    P. Tomasino (2), M. Ekholm (3)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    4:51
  2. NSH
    M. Duchene(6)
    T. Novak (5), M. Benning (2)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +9 pts
    3-0
    17:36
  3. DAL
    R. Hintz(1)
    J. Pavelski (4), J. Robertson (4)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +8 pts
    3-1
    17:51

3rd period

  1. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(3)PPG
    A. Radulov (5), J. Benn (3)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +12 pts
    3-2
    10:43
  2. NSH
    C. Sissons(2)EN
    M. Granlund (9)
    wristxG 0.45win prob +5 pts
    4-2
    19:17

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·DAL 2 PIM

1st

  • 4:54DALJamie Benn · High stickingdrawn by Ryan Johansen2 min

2nd

  • 9:16NSHAlexandre Carrier · Interferencedrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min
  • 12:05NSHLuke Kunin · Slashingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min

3rd

  • 8:56NSHRoman Josi · Holdingdrawn by Jason Robertson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalNSH goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Tanner Jeannot, 2nd 4:51 — NSH 64% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.23J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.17T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.12T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.11J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.11M. Heiskanen · Goal · xG 0.11D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.11R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.09R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.08M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.08E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.07M. Raffl · On goal · xG 0.07R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.07J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.06J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.06A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.06M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.05J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.05L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.04A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.04J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.04M. Raffl · On goal · xG 0.03J. Hakanpää · On goal · xG 0.03J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.02T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.01R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.01J. Hakanpää · On goal · xG 0.01A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.01M. Raffl · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL2 G · 2.1 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsDAL
1.93 G
All situations
2 G2.1
1.43 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 67 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH36%64%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.42 – 2.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsDAL
22
Shots on goal
27
38%
Faceoffs
62%
0/1
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
23
Hits
29
20
Blocked shots
6
7
Giveaways
13
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
14M. EkholmD011+120.20000—26:25
59R. JosiD000+200.00022—25:04
64M. GranlundC011020.060204020:00
55P. MyersD000+220.05000—19:36
57D. FabbroD000020.03030—19:23
5M. BenningD011+110.00230—19:03
11L. KuninC000+100.07502018:43
10C. SissonsC101+130.600302717:53
84T. JeannotL112+230.2231010017:50
95M. DucheneC101010.110005017:14
13Y. TreninC011+100.00120015:08
92R. JohansenC101+210.160104714:41
26P. TomasinoR011+120.14110—12:20
25M. OlivierR000000.05400—12:07
28E. TolvanenR000000.00600—11:15
82T. NovakC011+110.13000009:55
45A. CarrierD000000.00022—09:10
47M. McCarronC000020.061003308:26
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(W)27252.9262.09+0.0960:00

Season series

NSH leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).