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Islanders at Wild
NHL

New York Islanders at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
2
Minnesota Wild
▸5
FinalTV BSWI+, MSG+·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the New York Islanders 5-2. The Islanders scored first; the Wild answered. The Islanders led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Duhaime's goal at 9:18 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 52% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 3.6 to 1.5; shots on goal were NYI 21, MIN 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 34 of 37 (.919); Kaapo Kahkonen stopped 19 of 21 (.905), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brandon Duhaime (1 G, 1 A), 2. Ryan Hartman (1 G, 1 A), 3. Kaapo Kahkonen (19 saves, .905).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    B. Duhaime1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    MIN
    R. Hartman1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    K. Kahkonen19 saves, .905

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI1101902221
MINMIN01419416539

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(3)
    Z. Chara (2), M. Barzal (3)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
    1-0
    19:41

2nd period

  1. MIN
    N. Bjugstad(2)
    B. Duhaime (3)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    9:59
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(4)
    M. Barzal (4)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +20 pts
    2-1
    12:04

3rd period

  1. MIN
    R. Hartman(6)
    D. Kulikov (4), N. Sturm (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +29 pts
    2-2
    7:17
  2. MIN
    B. Duhaime(2)
    R. Hartman (1), M. Dumba (7)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +30 pts
    2-3
    9:18
  3. MIN
    J. Brodin(2)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.40win prob +6 pts
    2-4
    18:13
  4. MIN
    M. Dumba(2)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.38
    2-5
    19:11

Penalties

NYI 4 PIM·MIN 2 PIM

2nd

  • 7:20NYIZach Parise · Trippingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min
  • 13:39MINJon Merrill · Cross checkingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min

3rd

  • 10:27NYIBrock Nelson · Cross checkingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalNYI goalFinal: MIN 100%

Biggest swing: Brandon Duhaime, 3rd 9:18 — MIN 52% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Brodin · Goal · xG 0.40M. Dumba · Goal · xG 0.38N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.28N. Bjugstad · Goal · xG 0.27B. Duhaime · On goal · xG 0.20J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.13V. Rask · Missed · xG 0.12M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.12J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.11J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.10R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.10M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.10F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.09K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.09V. Rask · Missed · xG 0.09R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.08N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.08B. Duhaime · On goal · xG 0.07K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.07M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.05F. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.05R. Hartman · Goal · xG 0.04K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.04M. Foligno · On goal · xG 0.04K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.03K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.03M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.03J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.03K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.03B. Duhaime · Goal · xG 0.03J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.03N. Sturm · Missed · xG 0.02J. Merrill · On goal · xG 0.02K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.02J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.02F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.02J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.02N. Sturm · On goal · xG 0.02K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.02J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Goligoski · Missed · xG 0.02K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Sturm · On goal · xG 0.01K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.01M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.01K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.01J. Merrill · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.01N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brodin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN5 G · 3.6 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsMIN
1.52 G
All situations
3 G3.6
1.42 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI26%74%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.46 – 2.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsMIN
21
Shots on goal
39
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
16
Hits
8
18
Blocked shots
12
6
Giveaways
5
8
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3A. PelechD000000.01040—23:06
6R. PulockD000-220.04040—21:56
24S. MayfieldD000-110.02040—20:13
18A. BeauvillierR000020.07000—18:25
13M. BarzalC022-230.190002918:24
33Z. CharaD011000.01010—17:46
29B. NelsonC000-210.250024217:25
8N. DobsonD000-200.03110—17:19
4A. GreeneD000000.02010—17:07
27A. LeeL202-240.373005016:00
21K. PalmieriC000-120.09010015:55
12J. BaileyR000000.061106715:51
26O. WahlstromR000-220.12000—14:39
15C. ClutterbuckR000010.04210—13:40
53C. CizikasC000010.014008613:26
44J. PageauC000-100.002006712:23
17M. MartinL000010.12300—12:03
11Z. PariseL000-210.03002—11:43
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(L)37343.9192.87-0.1358:39

Season series

MIN leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).