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Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers

FinalTV NHLN, NESN·FLA Live Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Boston Bruins 4-1. The Bruins scored first; the Panthers answered. The Panthers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Eetu Luostarinen's goal at 2:06 of the second period, which took the Panthers' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.3 to 2.7; shots on goal were BOS 31, FLA 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Bruins win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 1.0 goals below expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Sergei Bobrovsky (30 saves, .968), 2. Eetu Luostarinen (1 G), 3. Anthony Duclair (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky30 saves, .968
  2. ★★
    FLA
    E. Luostarinen1 G
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    A. Duclair1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BOSBOS11502014131
FLAFLA1511428427

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BOS
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    10:37
  2. FLA
    snapxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    14:16

2nd period

  1. FLA
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    2:06

3rd period

  1. FLA
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-3
    12:40
  2. FLA
    wristxG 0.43
    1-4
    19:34

Penalties

BOS 2 PIM·FLA 4 PIM

1st

  • 2:32FLAMason Marchment · Holdingdrawn by Charlie Coyle2 min

2nd

  • 3:55FLAJoe Thornton · Cross checkingdrawn by Erik Haula2 min
  • 5:13BOSBrad Marchand · Hookingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalBOS goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Eetu Luostarinen, 2nd 2:06 — FLA 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.86O. Tippett · Goal · xG 0.43S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.17C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.15A. Duclair · Goal · xG 0.12M. Marchment · Goal · xG 0.12S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.10S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.10A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.09E. Luostarinen · Goal · xG 0.07C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.07A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.07K. Connauton · On goal · xG 0.07B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.06P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.06S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.05S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.05G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.05J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.05F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.04S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.04A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.04J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.04A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.04A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.03S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.03G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.03B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.02R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.02J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.02R. Gudas · Missed · xG 0.01C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.01A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA4 G · 3.3 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BOSvsFLA
2.71 G
All situations
3 G3.3
1.41 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
1.40 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BOS59%41%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.46 – 2.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BOSvsFLA
31
Shots on goal
27
66%
Faceoffs
34%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
37
Hits
34
13
Blocked shots
17
10
Giveaways
17
13
Takeaways
17

Box score

every player line
Boston Bruins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
73C. McAvoyD000-100.03230—24:39
88D. PastrnakR000-260.59100—22:05
48M. GrzelcykD000-220.13130—21:03
25B. CarloD000+110.04020—20:45
6M. ReillyD000-110.01310—20:29
63B. MarchandL000-220.31302—19:47
37P. BergeronC000-210.041006118:08
13C. CoyleC101-150.53400017:54
56E. HaulaL000-120.251008517:11
71T. HallL000-100.03210—16:03
74J. DeBruskL000040.43000—15:44
28D. ForbortD000-100.00100—15:39
92T. NosekL000-100.001106714:49
75C. CliftonD000-200.01920—14:27
83K. KuhlmanC000000.00400011:05
20C. LazarC000010.0200010010:29
23J. StudnickaC011020.222007110:17
11T. FredericC000040.10200010:02
Boston Bruins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(L)26233.8852.00-1.0057:16

Season series

BOS leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).