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Blues at Avalanche
NHL

St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
St. Louis Blues
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV CNBC, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the St. Louis Blues 6-3. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brayden Schenn's goal at 10:07 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 4% to 17%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.2 to 2.3; shots on goal were STL 35, COL 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 2.3 goals below expected; Philipp Grubauer stopped 32 of 35 (.914), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (3 G, 1 A), 2. Joonas Donskoi (2 G, 1 A), 3. Mike Hoffman (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    J. Donskoi2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    M. Hoffman1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL06114215335
COLCOL2191937635

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    J. Donskoi(1)
    R. Graves (1), N. Kadri (1)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:35
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(3)PPG
    C. Makar (1), J. Donskoi (1)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    0-2
    18:05

2nd period

  1. COL
    J. Donskoi(2)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (2), M. Rantanen (3)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +7 pts
    0-3
    3:14
  2. STL
    S. Blais(1)
    K. Clifford (1), T. Krug (1)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +7 pts
    1-3
    16:17

3rd period

  1. STL
    B. Schenn(1)PPG
    T. Bozak (1), T. Krug (2)
    wristxG 0.28win prob +13 pts
    2-3
    10:07
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(4)
    D. Toews (1), G. Landeskog (3)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +9 pts
    2-4
    15:25
  3. STL
    M. Hoffman(1)
    N. Mikkola (1), R. Thomas (2)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +8 pts
    3-4
    15:40
  4. COL
    B. Saad(1)EN
    T. Jost (1), D. Toews (2)
    wristxG 0.52win prob +7 pts
    3-5
    17:51
  5. COL
    N. MacKinnon(5)EN
    M. Rantanen (4), G. Landeskog (4)
    wristxG 0.95
    3-6
    19:48

Penalties

STL 4 PIM·COL 10 PIM

1st

  • 17:35STLRobert Thomas · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 2:48STLIvan Barbashev · Hookingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

3rd

  • 6:30COLNazem Kadri · Match penatly 10 minutesdrawn by Justin Faulk10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalSTL goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Brayden Schenn, 3rd 10:07 — STL 4% → 17%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.95B. Saad · Goal · xG 0.51A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.16G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.14N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.13B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.12J. Donskoi · Goal · xG 0.10G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.09G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.09G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.07A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.07J. Donskoi · Goal · xG 0.07V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.06J. Donskoi · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.03G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.02R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.02C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.01A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.00R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 3.2 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsCOL
2.33 G
All situations
4 G3.2
1.72 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.51 G
Power play
2 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL60%40%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.20 – 1.72

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsCOL
35
Shots on goal
35
36%
Faceoffs
64%
1/2
Power play
2/2
4
Penalty minutes
10
26
Hits
19
14
Blocked shots
17
5
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
47T. KrugD022-150.13210—26:22
55C. ParaykoD000020.04210—25:35
10B. SchennC101-120.294103320:22
90R. O'ReillyC000-340.441003020:14
72J. FaulkD000020.06100—19:26
21T. BozakC011-120.161104718:48
17J. SchwartzL000-120.18110—18:40
91V. TarasenkoR000-200.01020—18:03
68M. HoffmanC101030.14020017:18
6M. ScandellaD000-210.13300—17:16
25J. KyrouR000-240.22000—15:58
18R. ThomasC011010.01012014:30
77N. MikkolaD011+110.06140—14:23
49I. BarbashevL000010.042023314:05
9S. BlaisL101-120.13300—11:18
41R. BortuzzoD000000.01400—09:56
12Z. SanfordL000010.161004309:36
13K. CliffordL011+120.04000—08:17
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(L)33294.8791.75-2.2558:57

Series

COL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).