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Hurricanes at Panthers
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers

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Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
Florida Panthers
2
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Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Florida Panthers 4-2. The Panthers scored first; the Hurricanes answered. The Hurricanes led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 18:08 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 66% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.0 to 2.6; shots on goal were CAR 29, FLA 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nino Niederreiter (1 G), 2. Aleksander Barkov (2 G), 3. Sebastian Aho (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    N. Niederreiter1 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    A. Barkov2 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    S. Aho2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR0931416429
FLAFLA1609119234

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    A. Barkov(20)
    P. Hornqvist (18), N. Gusev (6)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +5 pts
    0-1
    6:22

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Martinook(4)
    J. Staal (19)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    0:14
  2. CAR
    N. Niederreiter(17)PPG
    B. Pesce (19), M. Necas (24)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    11:09
  3. CAR
    S. Aho(19)SHG
    M. Necas (25)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +19 pts
    3-1
    18:08

3rd period

  1. FLA
    A. Barkov(21)PPG
    K. Yandle (20), J. Huberdeau (34)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    12:02
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(20)EN
    M. Necas (26)
    wristxG 0.70win prob +7 pts
    4-2
    19:44

Penalties

CAR 27 PIM·FLA 15 PIM

1st

  • 2:31CARNino Niederreiter · Hookingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
  • 5:17FLARyan Lomberg · Fightingdrawn by Cedric Paquette5 min
  • 5:17CARCedric Paquette · Fightingdrawn by Ryan Lomberg5 min
  • 6:52FLAAleksander Barkov · Trippingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 8:55CARserved by N. Niederreiter · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 13:22FLASam Bennett · Interferencedrawn by Jordan Martinook2 min
  • 15:58CARWarren Foegele · Boardingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min

2nd

  • 9:39FLARyan Lomberg · Slashingdrawn by Brett Pesce2 min
  • 17:22CARBrett Pesce · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Duclair2 min

3rd

  • 5:38CARDougie Hamilton · Hookingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
  • 9:52FLAPatric Hornqvist · Roughingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 9:52FLARyan Lomberg · Roughingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 9:52CARSebastian Aho · Roughingdrawn by Patric Hornqvist2 min
  • 9:52CARAndrei Svechnikov · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Lomberg2 min
  • 10:14CARSteven Lorentz · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Montour2 min
  • 11:30CARJordan Staal · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:06CARJordan Staal · Trippingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
  • 18:18CARVincent Trocheck · Hookingdrawn by Eetu Luostarinen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalCAR goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, 2nd 18:08 — CAR 66% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.21O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.14A. Barkov · Goal · xG 0.14A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.13S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.12A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.12P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.10P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.10P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.09A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.09A. Barkov · Goal · xG 0.09J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.08S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.08P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.07A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.06J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.06M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.06P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.05A. Wennberg · Missed · xG 0.05A. Wennberg · Missed · xG 0.05F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.04M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.04A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.04O. Tippett · Missed · xG 0.04K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.04P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.03E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.03K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.03P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.03J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.03A. Wennberg · On goal · xG 0.03R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.02K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.02R. Gudas · Missed · xG 0.02N. Gusev · Missed · xG 0.02K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.02P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.02R. Gudas · Missed · xG 0.02G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.02G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.02O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.02J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.02K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.01J. Lammikko · Missed · xG 0.01N. Gusev · Missed · xG 0.01K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.01J. Lammikko · On goal · xG 0.01M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.00P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA2 G · 2.6 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsFLA
4.03 G
All situations
2 G2.6
1.51 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.41 G
Power play
1 G1.1
0.51 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR48%52%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.44 – 2.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsFLA
29
Shots on goal
34
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/3
Power play
1/9
27
Penalty minutes
15
18
Hits
28
24
Blocked shots
8
7
Giveaways
20
7
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22B. PesceD011+140.15022—28:18
74J. SlavinD000+210.00340—27:05
19D. HamiltonD000000.00032—20:51
20S. AhoC202+141.231326420:13
11J. StaalC011+110.022046019:34
71J. FastR000-110.041103318:55
88M. NecasC033+210.95110018:18
16V. TrocheckC000040.440422917:10
51J. GardinerD000010.02010—16:50
13W. FoegeleL000+110.20112—16:31
21N. NiederreiterR101010.2500210014:01
37A. SvechnikovR000-150.29212—13:38
58J. HakanpääD000+100.00400—13:16
33J. RyanD000000.00010—10:53
48J. MartinookL101+120.20000—08:22
18C. PaquetteC000010.05205008:06
78S. LorentzC000010.021225006:05
67M. GeekieC000010.13000004:26
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic(W)34322.9412.63+0.6359:48

Season series

CAR leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).