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Jets at Flames
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
▸5
Calgary Flames
1
FinalTV ESPN+, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Calgary Flames 5-1. The Flames scored first; the Jets answered. The Jets led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mark Scheifele's goal at 3:31 of the second period, which took the Jets' chances from 63% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.9 to 2.0; shots on goal were WPG 29, CGY 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikolaj Ehlers (3 A), 2. Mark Scheifele (2 G, 1 A), 3. Andrew Copp (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    N. Ehlers3 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    M. Scheifele2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    A. Copp1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG21121216529
CGYCGY11201305130

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    E. Lindholm(9)PPG
    M. Tkachuk (18), J. Gaudreau (14)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:24
  2. WPG
    N. Thompson(2)
    D. DeMelo (5), T. Lewis (4)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    16:19
  3. WPG
    M. Scheifele(14)
    K. Connor (17), N. Ehlers (19)
    slapxG 0.26win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    18:13

2nd period

  1. WPG
    M. Scheifele(15)
    N. Ehlers (20), K. Connor (18)
    slapxG 0.27win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    3:31
  2. WPG
    A. Copp(11)
    N. Ehlers (21), M. Scheifele (28)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +9 pts
    4-1
    14:31

3rd period

  1. WPG
    P. Dubois(7)
    B. Wheeler (21), P. Stastny (12)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +2 pts
    5-1
    1:04

Penalties

WPG 8 PIM·CGY 4 PIM

1st

  • 0:33WPGAndrew Copp · Hookingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
  • 2:52CGYNoah Hanifin · Roughingdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min
  • 9:42WPGNeal Pionk · Trippingdrawn by Joakim Nordstrom2 min

2nd

  • 10:14WPGMathieu Perreault · Boardingdrawn by Michael Stone2 min
  • 18:49WPGDylan DeMelo · Interferencedrawn by Joakim Nordstrom2 min

3rd

  • 10:31CGYMatthew Tkachuk · High stickingdrawn by Tucker Poolman2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalWPG goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Mark Scheifele, 2nd 3:31 — WPG 63% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.17A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.17M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.16M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.14E. Lindholm · Goal · xG 0.14J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.13M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12B. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.11S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.10S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.09S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.09J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.09S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.09J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.08R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Nordstrom · On goal · xG 0.07B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.07J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.07D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.06M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.06M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06J. Nordstrom · Missed · xG 0.06J. Leivo · On goal · xG 0.06D. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.05M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.05D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.05M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.04M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.03M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.03J. Nordstrom · On goal · xG 0.03M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.02M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.02J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.01N. Nesterov · Missed · xG 0.01N. Nesterov · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.01M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.01M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.01
CGY1 G · 2.9 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsCGY
2.05 G
All situations
1 G2.9
1.85 G
Even strength
0 G1.6
0.10 G
Power play
1 G1.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG34%66%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.01 – 2.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsCGY
29
Shots on goal
30
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/2
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
18
Hits
23
8
Blocked shots
11
10
Giveaways
13
6
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD000+230.07210—21:27
3T. PoolmanD000+110.02110—19:53
2D. DeMeloD011+430.09012—19:35
24D. ForbortD000+100.02100—19:11
4N. PionkD000030.09102—19:05
55M. ScheifeleC213+330.620006318:07
9A. CoppC101+120.060123816:55
64L. StanleyD000+220.03100—16:55
17A. LowryC000020.222003815:50
81K. ConnorL022+220.22010—15:48
27N. EhlersL033+310.02000—15:36
22M. AppletonC000000.00300014:33
26B. WheelerR011+120.26010—14:27
11N. ThompsonC101+110.063105014:11
25P. StastnyC011+120.141008014:08
13P. DuboisC101+110.071004313:28
23T. LewisC011+110.0410010012:24
85M. PerreaultC000+100.00112010:39
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)30291.9672.89+1.8960:00

Season series

WPG leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).