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Senators at Oilers
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
5
Edmonton Oilers
▸8
FinalTV SNW, TSN5·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Ottawa Senators 8-5. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 8-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colin White's goal at 5:38 of the first period, which took the Senators' chances from 20% to 34%. Expected goals were close — OTT 3.1, EDM 3.3; shots on goal were OTT 38, EDM 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Marcus Hogberg stopped 17 of 22 (.773), 2.7 goals below expected; Stuart Skinner stopped 33 of 38 (.868), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (1 G, 4 A), 2. Leon Draisaitl (6 A), 3. James Neal (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    C. McDavid1 G, 4 A
  2. ★★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl6 A
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    J. Neal2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT314012212538
EDMEDM51231405831

Scoring

13 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    D. Kahun(2)
    L. Draisaitl (10)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:08
  2. EDM
    J. Neal(1)PPG
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (4), C. McDavid (11)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +12 pts
    0-2
    4:15
  3. OTT
    C. White(1)
    E. Dadonov (2), N. Paul (3)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    5:38
  4. EDM
    T. Barrie(1)PPG
    L. Draisaitl (11), C. McDavid (12)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +11 pts
    1-3
    7:20
  5. EDM
    J. Neal(2)
    K. Turris (2)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +10 pts
    1-4
    9:42
  6. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(5)PPG
    C. McDavid (13), L. Draisaitl (12)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +4 pts
    1-5
    13:42
  7. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(3)
    C. Brown (4), A. Zub (1)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +5 pts
    2-5
    16:06
  8. OTT
    D. Batherson(1)PPG
    M. Reilly (4), B. Tkachuk (4)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +7 pts
    3-5
    17:38

2nd period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(8)PPG
    L. Draisaitl (13), R. Nugent-Hopkins (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +7 pts
    3-6
    0:42
  2. EDM
    D. Nurse(2)
    C. McDavid (14), L. Draisaitl (14)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +3 pts
    3-7
    11:31
  3. EDM
    K. Yamamoto(4)
    L. Draisaitl (15), T. Barrie (6)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +1 pts
    3-8
    19:43

3rd period

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(2)PPG
    C. White (2), J. Norris (4)
    snapxG 0.06
    4-8
    8:08
  2. OTT
    A. Watson(3)
    E. Gudbranson (2), C. Tierney (1)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +1 pts
    5-8
    8:55

Penalties

OTT 10 PIM·EDM 10 PIM

1st

  • 2:50OTTMike Reilly · Holding the stickdrawn by Gaetan Haas2 min
  • 6:23OTTDrake Batherson · Holdingdrawn by Tyson Barrie2 min
  • 13:16OTTErik Gudbranson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 16:48EDMDarnell Nurse · Trippingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min
  • 19:26OTTBrady Tkachuk · Holdingdrawn by William Lagesson2 min

2nd

  • 3:13EDMAdam Larsson · Roughingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 8:51EDMCaleb Jones · Hookingdrawn by Chris Tierney2 min
  • 16:22OTTDrake Batherson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 6:24EDMJosh Archibald · Hookingdrawn by Nikita Zaitsev2 min
  • 13:58EDMserved by A. Chiasson · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalOTT goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Colin White, 1st 5:38 — OTT 20% → 34%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Nugent-Hopkins · Goal · xG 0.23K. Turris · Missed · xG 0.18A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.16C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.15J. Neal · Goal · xG 0.14C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.13R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.13C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.12K. Yamamoto · Goal · xG 0.11J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.11R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.11R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.10R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.10R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.10R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.09G. Haas · Missed · xG 0.09C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.09C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.08J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.08C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.08T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.08R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.07J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.07R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.07D. Kahun · Goal · xG 0.06R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.06D. Nurse · Goal · xG 0.06J. Neal · Goal · xG 0.06T. Barrie · Goal · xG 0.05D. Kahun · On goal · xG 0.05C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.04T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.04T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.04K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.03C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.02T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.02J. Neal · Missed · xG 0.02W. Lagesson · Missed · xG 0.01D. Kahun · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.00W. Lagesson · On goal · xG 0.00D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM8 G · 3.3 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsEDM
3.15 G
All situations
8 G3.3
2.53 G
Even strength
4 G1.5
0.62 G
Power play
4 G1.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT47%53%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.03 – 3.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsEDM
38
Shots on goal
31
41%
Faceoffs
59%
2/5
Power play
4/5
10
Penalty minutes
10
19
Hits
14
12
Blocked shots
14
11
Giveaways
9
1
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5M. ReillyD011-230.17012—21:21
44E. GudbransonD011+110.02142—20:26
22N. ZaitsevD000-220.06120—20:10
55B. CoburnD000+110.01000—19:41
28C. BrownR011030.33100—18:49
63E. DadonovL011000.10100—17:40
7B. TkachukL112080.932022017:07
3J. BrownD000000.00110—16:30
15D. StepanC000000.041102916:26
19D. BathersonR101-120.1200410016:05
13N. PaulL011+130.191005015:56
71C. TierneyC011-120.170005715:45
36C. WhiteC112030.452103315:03
9J. NorrisC011030.270003613:45
2A. ZubD011010.01100—13:32
18T. StützleC101-220.15200013:01
16A. WatsonL101030.04220—12:28
23C. PaquetteC000010.053006710:14
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1M. Hogberg(L)22175.7732.30-2.7052:37
30M. Murray963.6670.99-2.0107:20

Season series

EDM leads 9-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).