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Oilers at Jets
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets

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Edmonton Oilers
▸4
Winnipeg Jets
3
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Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Oilers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Leon Draisaitl's goal at 19:59 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 53% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.4 to 2.7; shots on goal were EDM 38, WPG 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Mikko Koskinen stopped 35 of 38 (.921); Laurent Brossoit stopped 34 of 38 (.895), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (3 A), 2. Leon Draisaitl (1 G, 1 A), 3. Nikolaj Ehlers (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    C. McDavid3 A
  2. ★★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    N. Ehlers1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM09219210438
WPGWPG11606216338

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    A. Lowry(3)
    M. Perreault (1), M. Appleton (2)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    10:41

2nd period

  1. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(3)
    C. McDavid (4), J. Puljujarvi (2)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    0:21
  2. EDM
    K. Turris(1)
    Z. Kassian (2), J. Neal (1)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +21 pts
    2-1
    14:18

3rd period

  1. WPG
    N. Ehlers(4)
    P. Stastny (3), A. Copp (3)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +36 pts
    2-2
    13:54
  2. WPG
    B. Wheeler(3)PPG
    M. Scheifele (6), J. Morrissey (3)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +33 pts
    2-3
    15:07
  3. EDM
    K. Yamamoto(3)
    C. McDavid (5), L. Draisaitl (6)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +39 pts
    3-3
    16:55
  4. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(3)
    C. McDavid (6), D. Nurse (2)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +46 pts
    4-3
    19:59

Penalties

EDM 4 PIM·WPG 6 PIM

1st

  • 18:13WPGBlake Wheeler · Holdingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

2nd

  • 5:45WPGDerek Forbort · Holdingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 17:49EDMserved by J. Neal · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 14:07EDMDarnell Nurse · Trippingdrawn by Mathieu Perreault2 min
  • 17:57WPGDylan DeMelo · High stickingdrawn by Jesse Puljujarvi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalEDM goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl, 3rd 19:59 — EDM 53% → 100%

Game flow

expected goals, added up
EDM 3.38WPG 2.73dots are goals · empty-net attempts left out
PeriodEDM xGAttGWPG xGAttG
1st0.601301.42221
2nd1.832320.4680
3rd0.951320.86212

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Lowry · Goal · xG 0.32M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.26A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.24N. Ehlers · Goal · xG 0.17B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.15A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.13A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.09J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.09A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.09N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.08M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.08N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.07M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.07N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.07M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.06B. Wheeler · Goal · xG 0.05P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.05A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.05B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.05M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.04A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.04D. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.04N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.03J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.03J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.03D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.03N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.02P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.02L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.02N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.01N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · Missed · xG 0.01M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · Missed · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.01J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.01D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.01P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.00L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.00N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.00D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.00N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG3 G · 2.7 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsWPG
3.44 G
All situations
3 G2.7
2.74 G
Even strength
2 G2.6
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM60%40%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.29 – 2.70

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Best chances

by our xG
  1. WPGA. Lowry1st 10:41 · wrist · 11 ftGoal32%
  2. WPGM. Appleton2nd 3:45 · wrist · 9 ftSaved26%
  3. WPGA. Copp1st 0:38 · snap · 9 ftSaved24%
  4. EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins3rd 10:09 · wrist · 21 ftSaved22%
  5. EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins2nd 0:21 · backhand · 9 ftGoal18%
  6. EDMK. Yamamoto3rd 16:55 · wrist · 8 ftGoal18%

The chance each attempt scores, from where and how it was taken. Empty-net attempts are left out.

Team stats

EDMvsWPG
38
Shots on goal
38
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
20
Hits
15
13
Blocked shots
20
5
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25D. NurseD011+320.14102—23:41
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC101+250.60100023:35
97C. McDavidC033+350.551104423:23
74E. BearD000+310.06010—22:00
29L. DraisaitlC112+240.420005721:43
22T. BarrieD000-120.03110—21:36
4K. RussellD000-110.02020—17:55
13J. PuljujarviR011+160.60210—17:33
20S. KoekkoekD000000.00020—16:12
56K. YamamotoR101+140.55110—15:32
44Z. KassianR011-100.00500—15:22
6A. LarssonD000-120.17130—14:27
18J. NealL011+230.14200—14:25
21D. KahunC000-100.0111010014:05
8K. TurrisC101-120.081004013:03
15J. ArchibaldR000000.00000—09:22
14D. ShoreC000010.023006307:29
63T. EnnisR000-100.00000—06:15
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
19M. Koskinen(W)38353.9212.73-0.2759:41

Season series

EDM leads 7-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).