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Islanders at Senators
NHL

New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
3
Ottawa Senators
▸4
FinalTV MSG+, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the New York Islanders 4-3. The Islanders scored first; the Senators answered. The Senators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Duclair's goal at 14:26 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 53% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.5 to 2.8; shots on goal were NYI 40, OTT 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.1 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 37 of 40 (.925). Three stars: 1. Mathew Barzal (1 G, 2 A), 2. Craig Anderson (37 saves, .925), 3. Anthony Duclair (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    M. Barzal1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    C. Anderson37 saves, .925
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    A. Duclair1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI111117112340
OTTOTT1132719429

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(20)PPG
    M. Barzal (39), D. Brassard (20)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    3:58
  2. OTT
    C. Brown(16)
    N. Zaitsev (11), M. Reilly (15)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    13:57

2nd period

  1. NYI
    M. Barzal(19)
    J. Eberle (24), D. Toews (21)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    4:18
  2. OTT
    M. Boedker(2)SHG
    C. Tierney (26)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    10:00
  3. OTT
    A. Duclair(23)
    J. Hawryluk (6), C. White (14)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +20 pts
    2-3
    14:26

3rd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(20)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.03win prob +8 pts
    2-4
    16:55
  2. NYI
    R. Pulock(9)
    M. Barzal (40), D. Toews (22)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +6 pts
    3-4
    18:00

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·OTT 8 PIM

1st

  • 2:07OTTBobby Ryan · Trippingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
  • 6:14NYIDevon Toews · Trippingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 8:51NYINoah Dobson · Trippingdrawn by Jayce Hawryluk2 min

2nd

  • 4:35OTTBrady Tkachuk · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Semyon Varlamov2 min
  • 9:02OTTJayce Hawryluk · High stickingdrawn by Jordan Eberle2 min

3rd

  • 8:48OTTColin White · Trippingdrawn by Anders Lee2 min
  • 12:22NYIAndy Greene · Trippingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalNYI goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Anthony Duclair, 2nd 14:26 — OTT 53% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.61M. Peca · Missed · xG 0.28A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.20J. Hawryluk · Missed · xG 0.18A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.18A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.15A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.14B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.14M. Boedker · Goal · xG 0.11A. Duclair · Goal · xG 0.10C. Brown · Goal · xG 0.09M. Peca · Missed · xG 0.09A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.07B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.07B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.06C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.06R. Balcers · Missed · xG 0.06C. White · Missed · xG 0.05C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.04C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.04N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.04T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.04T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.04B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.03A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.03M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.03M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.02M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.01R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 3.5 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsOTT
2.83 G
All situations
4 G3.5
1.72 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
1.11 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI49%51%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.82 – 2.89

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsOTT
40
Shots on goal
29
56%
Faceoffs
44%
1/4
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
22
Hits
29
11
Blocked shots
11
12
Giveaways
16
7
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
13M. BarzalC123+150.220108023:42
7J. EberleR011+150.59100—23:17
6R. PulockD101060.19010—23:16
2N. LeddyD000-100.02100—22:28
27A. LeeL101+160.731106721:49
25D. ToewsD022-110.08012—19:41
29B. NelsonC000-140.310005618:50
44J. PageauC000-130.281005018:43
24S. MayfieldD000020.04030—17:39
18A. BeauvillierR000-210.04200—16:07
12J. BaileyR000-320.06000—15:16
10D. BrassardC011-100.00500014:57
4A. GreeneD000010.05122—14:52
8N. DobsonD000-120.04122—14:20
28M. Dal ColleL000-110.02100—11:25
17M. MartinL000010.16600—07:32
21O. KoivulaL000000.000003306:05
15C. ClutterbuckR000000.00200—05:55
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(L)29254.8622.90-1.1058:06

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).