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Sabres at Jets
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Winnipeg Jets
▸3
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN3·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-1. The Jets scored first and never trailed. The Jets led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tucker Poolman's goal at 16:05 of the first period, which took the Jets' chances from 66% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 2.7 to 2.1; shots on goal were BUF 26, WPG 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Carter Hutton stopped 32 of 35 (.914); Connor Hellebuyck stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Kyle Connor (2 G, 1 A), 2. Blake Wheeler (2 A), 3. Rasmus Ristolainen (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    K. Connor2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    B. Wheeler2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. Ristolainen1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF0111807126
WPGWPG21311408335

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    K. Connor(34)
    B. Wheeler (39)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    13:59
  2. WPG
    T. Poolman(3)SHG
    K. Connor (35), A. Copp (15)
    tip-inxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    16:05

2nd period

  1. WPG
    K. Connor(35)PPG
    M. Scheifele (43), B. Wheeler (40)
    wristxG 0.38win prob +7 pts
    0-3
    3:41
  2. BUF
    R. Ristolainen(6)
    K. Okposo (10), J. Larsson (12)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +8 pts
    1-3
    10:34

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·WPG 4 PIM

1st

  • 7:49WPGJack Roslovic · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 14:46WPGNicholas Shore · Slashingdrawn by Jimmy Vesey2 min

2nd

  • 3:12BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Trippingdrawn by Mason Appleton2 min
  • 4:39BUFserved by J. Vesey · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 12:29BUFWayne Simmonds · Roughingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalBUF goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Tucker Poolman, 1st 16:05 — WPG 66% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.38A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.24P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.21T. Poolman · Goal · xG 0.17K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.17N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.13M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.11N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.10M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.09N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.09J. Harkins · Missed · xG 0.08J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.08K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.08J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.06P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.06K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.06J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.06J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.05B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.05J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.05P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.04B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.02P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Beaulieu · Missed · xG 0.02T. Poolman · On goal · xG 0.02N. Beaulieu · Missed · xG 0.02J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kulikov · On goal · xG 0.01P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.01N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.01B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.01N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.01C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.01N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.01J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.00A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.00J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG3 G · 2.7 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsWPG
2.11 G
All situations
3 G2.7
1.81 G
Even strength
1 G2.0
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF41%59%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.12 – 2.59

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsWPG
26
Shots on goal
35
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
13
Hits
18
7
Blocked shots
13
7
Giveaways
12
5
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000-110.10110—26:19
62B. MontourD000030.22010—25:52
9J. EichelC000-100.130003722:28
55R. RistolainenD101+140.14112—21:00
68V. OlofssonL000-120.27000—19:49
23S. ReinhartC000-130.27000018:51
24L. PilutD000+100.00100—16:54
53J. SkinnerL000-110.17200—16:11
17W. SimmondsR000-210.17122—16:01
28Z. GirgensonsC000+110.11200014:35
10H. JokiharjuD000-110.01000—14:12
90M. JohanssonL000010.110105013:55
27C. LazarC000-110.080005613:43
19J. McCabeD000-110.01100—12:22
95D. KahunC000020.10000011:54
21K. OkposoR011+130.15010—11:51
22J. LarssonL011+110.101007511:40
13J. VeseyL000000.00300—10:05
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40C. Hutton(L)35323.9142.67-0.3357:49

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).