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Avalanche at Hurricanes
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
Carolina Hurricanes
2
FinalTV FS-CR, ALT·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Carolina Hurricanes 3-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Samuel Girard's goal at 17:23 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.6 to 3.7; shots on goal were COL 32, CAR 47. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Pavel Francouz stopped 45 of 47 (.957), 2.6 goals saved above expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 29 of 32 (.906). Three stars: 1. Tyson Jost (2 G), 2. Teuvo Teravainen (2 G), 3. Sebastian Aho (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    T. Jost2 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    T. Teravainen2 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    S. Aho2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL11211218332
CARCAR013018216247

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    T. Jost(6)
    E. Johnson (10), S. Girard (28)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    6:34

2nd period

  1. COL
    T. Jost(7)
    C. Makar (34)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    12:51

3rd period

  1. CAR
    T. Teravainen(14)
    S. Aho (25), B. Skjei (16)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    5:54
  2. CAR
    T. Teravainen(15)
    J. Slavin (29), S. Aho (26)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +29 pts
    2-2
    7:55
  3. COL
    S. Girard(4)
    G. Landeskog (15), V. Namestnikov (13)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +43 pts
    3-2
    17:23

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·CAR 6 PIM

1st

  • 2:54CARJordan Martinook · High stickingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 16:46COLJoonas Donskoi · High stickingdrawn by Haydn Fleury2 min

2nd

  • 4:35COLNikita Zadorov · Cross checkingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 9:24CARAndrei Svechnikov · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 14:35CARserved by J. Williams · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 3:04COLNikita Zadorov · Interferencedrawn by Justin Williams2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalCOL goalFinal: CAR 0%

Biggest swing: Samuel Girard, 3rd 17:23 — COL 48% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.24N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.20J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.19M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.19A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.18N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.17T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.16J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.15N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.15S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.14J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.14S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.13J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.13T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.13J. Williams · Missed · xG 0.12T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.12J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.11T. Teravainen · Goal · xG 0.10S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.10J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.10J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.10R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.09S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.09A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.08J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.08A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.08N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.08A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.08J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.07A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.07J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.07T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.07J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.06W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.04J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.04N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.04W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.04N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.03J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.02H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.02J. Edmundson · Missed · xG 0.02T. Teravainen · Goal · xG 0.02J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.02S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.02J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.02J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.02H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.02H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.02J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.01H. Fleury · Missed · xG 0.01H. Fleury · Missed · xG 0.01B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.01T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01T. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.01J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.01H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.01J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.00W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.00N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.00T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR2 G · 4.6 xG · 67 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsCAR
3.73 G
All situations
2 G4.6
2.33 G
Even strength
2 G2.5
0.30 G
Power play
0 G2.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 109 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL22%78%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.58 – 4.54

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsCAR
32
Shots on goal
47
38%
Faceoffs
62%
0/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
20
Hits
27
14
Blocked shots
10
10
Giveaways
16
8
Takeaways
18

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
29N. MacKinnonC000+160.600002522:55
27R. GravesD000+121.08100—21:57
8C. MakarD011+110.12030—20:53
6E. JohnsonD011+130.02300—20:19
92G. LandeskogL011020.140103319:50
37J. CompherL000+110.101103019:10
28I. ColeD000-210.07110—19:01
49S. GirardD112+230.19120—18:11
17T. JostC202+240.39220014:53
95A. BurakovskyL000-110.13010—14:52
41P. BellemareL000020.164005514:43
13V. NichushkinR000-130.52010—14:22
16N. ZadorovD000-100.02214—13:57
90V. NamestnikovC011+100.08200013:23
83M. NietoL000000.00100—13:13
72J. DonskoiR000+110.01112—12:38
61M. KautR000020.04100—11:52
81V. KamenevC000-100.0000010007:51
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39P. Francouz(W)47452.9574.60+2.6060:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).