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Maple Leafs at Panthers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Florida Panthers
3
FinalTV FS-F, TVAS·BB&T Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers 5-3. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Nylander's goal at 9:00 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.7 to 2.0; shots on goal were TOR 29, FLA 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 1.0 goals below expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (1 G), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 3. Noel Acciari (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    N. Acciari1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR3901426529
FLAFLA3904014327

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    M. Pysyk(9)
    A. Ekblad (34), K. Yandle (39)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    2:23
  2. TOR
    Z. Hyman(20)
    A. Matthews (32), J. Holl (16)
    backhandxG 0.28win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    3:32
  3. FLA
    M. Hoffman(26)
    F. Vatrano (17), E. Haula (11)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    7:25
  4. FLA
    N. Acciari(20)
    K. Yandle (40)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    12:36
  5. TOR
    K. Kapanen(13)
    J. Spezza (16), A. Kerfoot (19)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +13 pts
    2-3
    17:43
  6. TOR
    A. Matthews(44)
    Z. Hyman (16), M. Marner (48)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    3-3
    18:58

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(29)
    K. Clifford (10), M. Marincin (2)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +31 pts
    4-3
    9:00
  2. TOR
    J. Holl(2)EN
    J. Tavares (31)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    19:39

Penalties

TOR 7 PIM·FLA 7 PIM

1st

  • 15:42FLAserved by A. Saarela · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 20:00FLAMacKenzie Weegar · Fightingdrawn by Kasperi Kapanen5 min
  • 20:00TORKasperi Kapanen · Fightingdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar5 min

2nd

  • 16:24TORMartin Marincin · Interferencedrawn by Lucas Wallmark2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTOR goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: William Nylander, 3rd 9:00 — TOR 48% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Hoffman · Goal · xG 0.23M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.21E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.13E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.11J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.09N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.09E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.09M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.09N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.09C. Sceviour · Missed · xG 0.08M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.08N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.08M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.07M. Pysyk · Missed · xG 0.06F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.05M. Pysyk · Goal · xG 0.05M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.04N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.03J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.03L. Wallmark · Missed · xG 0.03B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.02F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.02N. Acciari · Goal · xG 0.02A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Saarela · On goal · xG 0.02M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.02A. Stralman · Missed · xG 0.02K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.02F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.01C. Sceviour · Missed · xG 0.01M. Matheson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.01B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.01A. Saarela · On goal · xG 0.00A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA3 G · 2.0 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsFLA
2.74 G
All situations
3 G2.0
1.94 G
Even strength
3 G1.2
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.40 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR60%40%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.44 – 1.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsFLA
29
Shots on goal
27
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/1
Power play
0/1
7
Penalty minutes
7
16
Hits
19
16
Blocked shots
13
17
Giveaways
16
5
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
94T. BarrieD000020.05030—25:21
16M. MarnerR011+350.48010—23:35
34A. MatthewsC112+260.582105923:18
11Z. HymanL112+330.340005023:15
3J. HollD112+210.23210—21:44
23T. DermottD000+200.00220—20:49
52M. MarincinD011010.03332—20:02
91J. TavaresC011020.251204319:34
88W. NylanderR101030.14000—17:30
38R. SandinD000010.03010—16:07
19J. SpezzaC011+100.030004014:08
15A. KerfootC011000.10200013:06
24K. KapanenR101030.21105—12:59
47P. EngvallL000-100.1801010012:28
33F. GauthierC000-100.001102910:47
73K. CliffordL011020.05200—09:15
48C. RosenD000+100.00000—08:44
37T. LiljegrenD000-200.00000—05:21
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)27243.8891.98-1.0259:57

Season series

FLA leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).