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Panthers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-F·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3. The Panthers came back from two goals down. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mike Hoffman's goal at 10:13 of the third period, which took the Panthers' chances from 48% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.3 to 3.0; shots on goal were FLA 21, TOR 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 31 of 34 (.912); Michael Hutchinson stopped 10 of 13 (.769), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mark Pysyk (3 G), 2. Mike Hoffman (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mike Matheson (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    M. Pysyk3 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    M. Hoffman1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    M. Matheson3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA1803410521
TORTOR01321417334

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    M. Pysyk(5)
    M. Matheson (8), D. Malgin (7)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    11:30

2nd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(19)PPG
    M. Marner (38), T. Barrie (26)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    3:21
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(25)
    K. Kapanen (19), A. Johnsson (12)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +23 pts
    1-2
    19:05

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(37)
    Z. Hyman (12), M. Marner (39)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    0:38
  2. FLA
    M. Pysyk(6)
    M. Matheson (9), J. Brown (5)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    2:20
  3. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(19)PPG
    E. Dadonov (18), M. Hoffman (23)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +20 pts
    3-3
    3:18
  4. FLA
    M. Hoffman(19)
    A. Ekblad (24), M. Matheson (10)
    backhandxG 0.40win prob +33 pts
    4-3
    10:13
  5. FLA
    M. Pysyk(7)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.91win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    19:12

Penalties

FLA 6 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 12:21TORJohn Tavares · High stickingdrawn by Dominic Toninato2 min

2nd

  • 2:22FLAMike Matheson · Trippingdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min
  • 17:03FLAJayce Hawryluk · Slashingdrawn by Jason Spezza2 min

3rd

  • 3:11TORMitch Marner · Hookingdrawn by Vincent Trocheck2 min
  • 6:33FLAMike Hoffman · Trippingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalFLA goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Mike Hoffman, 3rd 10:13 — FLA 48% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.31A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.19T. Moore · On goal · xG 0.14A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.13W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.10W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.09J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.08R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.08A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07F. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.06F. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.05M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.05T. Moore · Missed · xG 0.05M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.04T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.04A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.04C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.04J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR3 G · 3.0 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTOR
3.35 G
All situations
3 G3.0
1.64 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.81 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA39%61%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.39 – 3.02

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTOR
21
Shots on goal
34
44%
Faceoffs
56%
1/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
30
Hits
10
11
Blocked shots
10
4
Giveaways
16
13
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
61R. StillmanD000000.02120—24:11
6A. StralmanD000010.05330—23:19
5A. EkbladD011+100.02000—21:36
55N. AcciariC000+110.054105619:37
19M. MathesonD033+330.06112—17:34
68M. HoffmanC112+250.65412017:26
7C. SceviourC000010.014103316:46
77F. VatranoR000000.001003316:34
3K. YandleD000020.04020—16:21
14D. ToninatoC000000.00100015:12
21V. TrocheckC000+120.163004014:56
13M. PysykD303+231.60100—14:32
11J. HuberdeauL101-120.51000—14:16
10B. ConnollyR000+100.00100—14:06
2J. BrownD011+100.00200—13:32
63E. DadonovL011-110.12000—12:12
8J. HawrylukR000000.00102—11:40
62D. MalginC011000.043006011:11
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(W)34313.9123.04+0.0460:00

Season series

FLA leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).