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Lightning at Avalanche
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Colorado Avalanche
3
Final/OTTV ESPN+, SUN·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 in overtime, Nikita Kucherov scoring at 3:03. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Lightning led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Kucherov's goal at 3:03 of overtime, which took the Lightning's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.2 to 2.9; shots on goal were TBL 27, COL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Curtis McElhinney stopped 24 of 27 (.889); Pavel Francouz stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (1 G), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 3. Steven Stamkos (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL010380712427
COLCOL110151903327

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    A. Burakovsky(19)PPG
    M. Rantanen (22), N. MacKinnon (49)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +9 pts
    0-1
    4:49

2nd period

  1. TBL
    A. Killorn(23)
    O. Palat (23), A. Cirelli (26)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    4:54
  2. TBL
    C. Gaunce(1)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    5:10
  3. TBL
    S. Stamkos(27)
    B. Point (36), K. Shattenkirk (23)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    13:43
  4. COL
    N. MacKinnon(33)
    G. Landeskog (12), E. Johnson (9)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    18:26

3rd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(12)
    C. Makar (31), G. Landeskog (13)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +33 pts
    3-3
    12:43

Overtime

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(29)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.22win prob +51 pts
    4-3
    3:03

Penalties

TBL 12 PIM·COL 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:28TBLYanni Gourde · Hookingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 19:01COLRyan Graves · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Curtis McElhinney2 min

2nd

  • 7:18TBLErik Cernak · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

3rd

  • 8:51COLJ.T. Compher · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Curtis McElhinney2 min
  • 8:51COLNikita Zadorov · Roughingdrawn by Patrick Maroon2 min
  • 8:51TBLPatrick Maroon · Roughingdrawn by Nikita Zadorov2 min
  • 8:51TBLMikhail Sergachev · Roughingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 10:29TBLCameron Gaunce · Holdingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 14:30TBLAnthony Cirelli · Cross checkingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalTBL goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov, OT 3:03 — TBL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.21N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.19A. Burakovsky · Goal · xG 0.19G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.18S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.16N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.14M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.13A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.12S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.12M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.12G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.11J. Donskoi · On goal · xG 0.10N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.10V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.09V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07R. Graves · Missed · xG 0.06A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.06G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.06J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.05M. Nieto · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.05E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.05R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.04N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.04J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04R. Graves · Missed · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03J. Donskoi · Missed · xG 0.03C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02J. Donskoi · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.02I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.02P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.02J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.01I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.01P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.01
COL3 G · 3.2 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCOL
2.94 G
All situations
3 G3.2
2.24 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.00 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.70 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL43%57%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.80 – 3.21

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCOL
27
Shots on goal
27
39%
Faceoffs
61%
0/1
Power play
1/4
12
Penalty minutes
6
33
Hits
17
19
Blocked shots
12
4
Giveaways
6
10
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000+210.17140—29:51
98M. SergachevD000-210.02222—24:53
81E. CernakD000+210.07622—21:37
91S. StamkosC101+140.394104120:52
86N. KucherovR101+140.62000—19:52
21B. PointC011+100.17110019:47
22K. ShattenkirkD011-120.05420—19:40
71A. CirelliC011+100.012225019:32
17A. KillornL101+130.43200—17:56
18O. PalatL011020.43100—15:04
13C. PaquetteC000-100.002302914:56
9T. JohnsonC000000.000103313:48
2L. SchennD000+130.23510—13:11
14P. MaroonL000000.00102—12:23
33C. GaunceD101020.04202—12:11
37Y. GourdeC000020.13002011:16
67M. StephensC000+110.110004008:07
23C. VerhaegheC000+110.02000006:52
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35C. McElhinney(W)27243.8893.25+0.2563:03

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).