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Avalanche at Lightning
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
FinalTV SUN, ALT·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Gabriel Landeskog's goal at 5:48 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 61% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.4 to 1.7; shots on goal were COL 24, TBL 46. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Pavel Francouz stopped 44 of 46 (.957); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 18 of 24 (.750), 4.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tyson Jost (3 G), 2. Pavel Francouz (44 saves, .957), 3. Colin Wilson (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    T. Jost3 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    P. Francouz44 saves, .957
  3. ★★★
    COL
    C. Wilson3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL1631028624
TBLTBL112016118246

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    T. Jost(2)
    S. Girard (4), C. Wilson (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:09
  2. TBL
    Y. Gourde(1)
    R. McDonagh (2), K. Shattenkirk (2)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    17:35

2nd period

  1. COL
    T. Jost(3)
    J. Compher (2), C. Wilson (2)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +9 pts
    2-1
    3:17
  2. COL
    G. Landeskog(3)
    N. MacKinnon (7), I. Cole (4)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +19 pts
    3-1
    5:48
  3. COL
    T. Jost(4)
    J. Compher (3), C. Wilson (3)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +11 pts
    4-1
    6:06

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. Kadri(3)
    C. Makar (7)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +2 pts
    5-1
    6:30
  2. TBL
    V. Hedman(1)
    K. Shattenkirk (3), A. Killorn (4)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +1 pts
    5-2
    11:48
  3. COL
    M. Rantanen(5)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.06
    6-2
    14:27

Penalties

COL 18 PIM·TBL 18 PIM

1st

  • 4:33TBLBraydon Coburn · Slashingdrawn by Joonas Donskoi2 min
  • 7:41COLNikita Zadorov · Slashingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

2nd

  • 1:27TBLErik Cernak · Fightingdrawn by Matt Calvert5 min
  • 1:27COLMatt Calvert · Fightingdrawn by Erik Cernak5 min
  • 13:00COLGabriel Landeskog · Roughingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 13:00TBLAnthony Cirelli · Roughingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min

3rd

  • 2:52TBLLuke Witkowski · Cross checkingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 3:19COLGabriel Landeskog · Hookingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 3:46TBLOndrej Palat · Trippingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 3:46COLNazem Kadri · Embellishmentdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min
  • 5:06COLRyan Graves · Ps slash on breakawaydrawn by Nikita Kucherov0 min
  • 19:43TBLVictor Hedman · Fightingdrawn by Matt Calvert5 min
  • 19:43COLMatt Calvert · Fightingdrawn by Victor Hedman5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCOL goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Gabriel Landeskog, 2nd 5:48 — COL 61% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.10T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.10B. Point · On goal · xG 0.10A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.09P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.09B. Point · Missed · xG 0.08O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.08L. Witkowski · On goal · xG 0.08V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.08E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.07V. Hedman · Goal · xG 0.07O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.07T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.07C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.06A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.06M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.05C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.05O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.04Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.02A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.01K. Shattenkirk · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01L. Witkowski · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.01S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL2 G · 2.4 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsTBL
1.76 G
All situations
2 G2.4
1.66 G
Even strength
2 G2.1
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL38%62%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.74 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsTBL
24
Shots on goal
46
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/2
Power play
0/2
18
Penalty minutes
18
18
Hits
26
15
Blocked shots
8
4
Giveaways
5
9
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
49S. GirardD011+120.11020—22:50
6E. JohnsonD000+110.03230—22:36
29N. MacKinnonC011+130.203005320:36
27R. GravesD000+200.00330—20:01
28I. ColeD011+300.02010—19:39
96M. RantanenR101+120.17100—18:22
92G. LandeskogL101020.251045018:14
16N. ZadorovD000+100.00312—17:56
91N. KadriC101+110.100024016:52
95A. BurakovskyL000+110.01000—15:44
72J. DonskoiR000+130.11010—14:49
8C. MakarD011020.07030—14:46
83M. NietoL000010.06110—13:32
37J. CompherL022+210.060005613:06
41P. BellemareL000000.121004412:44
17T. JostC303+230.252003810:58
11M. CalvertL000010.071010—10:44
22C. WilsonC033+310.08000009:48
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39P. Francouz(W)46442.9572.39+0.3960:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).