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Maple Leafs at Stars
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Dallas Stars
3
FinalTV FS-SW, SN·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Dallas Stars 5-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyson Barrie's goal at 11:58 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 67% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.7 to 3.1; shots on goal were TOR 34, DAL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 31 of 34 (.912); Ben Bishop stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (2 A), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 3. Alexander Radulov (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    A. Radulov2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR11228214534
DALDAL11011519334

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(36)
    M. Marner (36), T. Barrie (25)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    12:18
  2. DAL
    D. Gurianov(13)
    J. Klingberg (18)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    17:21

2nd period

  1. TOR
    Z. Hyman(14)
    M. Marner (37), A. Matthews (24)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    4:40
  2. TOR
    T. Barrie(5)
    A. Johnsson (11)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    11:58
  3. DAL
    A. Radulov(14)
    R. Faksa (8)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    19:02

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(24)
    J. Muzzin (11), A. Kerfoot (13)
    wristxG 0.33win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    3:28
  2. DAL
    A. Radulov(15)
    M. Heiskanen (18), M. Janmark (10)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    4-3
    6:26
  3. TOR
    A. Johnsson(7)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.93win prob +6 pts
    5-3
    19:57

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·DAL 4 PIM

2nd

  • 4:54TORCody Ceci · Roughingdrawn by Blake Comeau2 min
  • 8:14DALMiro Heiskanen · Holdingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

3rd

  • 8:42TORZach Hyman · Trippingdrawn by John Klingberg2 min
  • 9:05DALRadek Faksa · Interferencedrawn by Jake Muzzin2 min
  • 12:55TORJason Spezza · Interferencedrawn by Alexander Radulov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalTOR goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Tyson Barrie, 2nd 11:58 — TOR 67% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.21B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.19R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.16J. Dowling · On goal · xG 0.16D. Gurianov · Missed · xG 0.15J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.12D. Gurianov · Goal · xG 0.11J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.11C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.11A. Radulov · Goal · xG 0.10M. Janmark · Missed · xG 0.09C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.09C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.09T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.09J. Dowling · Missed · xG 0.09T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.09A. Cogliano · Missed · xG 0.08M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.08J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.08M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.08M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.07B. Comeau · Missed · xG 0.07T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.06J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.05B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.05A. Radulov · Goal · xG 0.05A. Sekera · On goal · xG 0.05J. Dowling · On goal · xG 0.05R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.03T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.03R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.03E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.01J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cogliano · Missed · xG 0.01J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.00B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.00R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL3 G · 3.1 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDAL
3.74 G
All situations
3 G3.1
2.64 G
Even strength
3 G2.5
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR45%55%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.73 – 3.03

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDAL
34
Shots on goal
34
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
20
Hits
31
23
Blocked shots
15
13
Giveaways
16
5
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8J. MuzzinD011050.21050—22:18
16M. MarnerR022+210.27110—21:51
23T. DermottD000+330.07310—21:47
3J. HollD000-140.36330—21:18
11Z. HymanL101+140.505022520:43
94T. BarrieD112+310.05110—20:22
34A. MatthewsC112+230.401204620:06
83C. CeciD000000.02212—19:28
91J. TavaresC000-130.110006718:12
88W. NylanderR101010.33000—15:25
24K. KapanenR000+130.07000—14:47
15A. KerfootC011-110.03120014:14
18A. JohnssonL112+110.98110—13:21
47P. EngvallL000+110.010105712:56
38R. SandinD000-110.03150—12:51
19J. SpezzaC000000.000023308:42
33F. GauthierC000010.120005008:22
42T. MooreL000010.16100—07:10
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)34313.9123.08+0.0860:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).