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Senators at Sabres
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV NHLN, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mike Reilly's goal at 8:43 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 55% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 4.1 to 1.7; shots on goal were OTT 39, BUF 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 28 of 30 (.933); Linus Ullmark stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brady Tkachuk (1 A), 2. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1 G), 3. Anthony Duclair.

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    J. Pageau1 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    A. Duclair

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11311838539
BUFBUF1817015230

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    J. Pageau(20)PPG
    T. Chabot (24), B. Tkachuk (14)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    3:59
  2. BUF
    S. Reinhart(18)PPG
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +10 pts
    1-1
    13:42

2nd period

  1. OTT
    T. Ennis(13)PPG
    D. Batherson (3), M. Reilly (7)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    4:52
  2. BUF
    J. Eichel(29)
    Z. Girgensons (5), B. Montour (10)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    8:48

3rd period

  1. OTT
    M. Reilly(1)PPG
    T. Ennis (16), D. Batherson (4)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +24 pts
    3-2
    8:43
  2. OTT
    M. Borowiecki(6)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    4-2
    17:54
  3. OTT
    N. Zaitsev(1)EN
    R. Hainsey (9)
    wristxG 0.15
    5-2
    19:54

Penalties

OTT 8 PIM·BUF 8 PIM

1st

  • 2:10BUFRasmus Dahlin · High stickingdrawn by Tyler Ennis2 min
  • 8:29OTTScott Sabourin · Interferencedrawn by Curtis Lazar2 min
  • 13:15OTTMike Reilly · Holdingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min

2nd

  • 0:11OTTConnor Brown · Hookingdrawn by Lawrence Pilut2 min
  • 4:03BUFJeff Skinner · Interferencedrawn by Dylan DeMelo2 min

3rd

  • 8:00BUFMichael Frolik · Roughingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
  • 10:54BUFKyle Okposo · Trippingdrawn by Mark Borowiecki2 min
  • 16:11OTTNikita Zaitsev · Roughingdrawn by Conor Sheary2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalOTT goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Mike Reilly, 3rd 8:43 — OTT 55% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.14S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.14M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.14M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.14J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.13M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.13R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.09R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.06M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.06K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.06J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.05S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.05C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.04M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.04M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.04K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.03J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.02S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.02J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.02C. Lazar · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.02C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.01M. Frolik · Missed · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.00B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 1.7 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsBUF
4.13 G
All situations
2 G1.7
1.40 G
Even strength
1 G1.0
0.93 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT62%38%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.32 – 1.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsBUF
39
Shots on goal
30
46%
Faceoffs
54%
3/4
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
30
Hits
17
11
Blocked shots
6
2
Giveaways
5
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD011-120.04110—23:18
81R. HainseyD011000.00220—22:16
28C. BrownR000+220.69202—20:20
2D. DeMeloD000+110.01100—19:09
7B. TkachukL011080.421002519:08
74M. BorowieckiD101+110.12140—17:51
36C. WhiteC000-140.391005517:45
44J. PageauC101+130.201005517:01
22N. ZaitsevD101+110.15412—17:01
5M. ReillyD112020.06012—15:59
71C. TierneyC000+200.130004715:36
10A. DuclairL000090.65100—15:12
19D. BathersonR022-110.014005015:05
63T. EnnisR112-130.30100—14:52
90V. NamestnikovC000010.87100014:31
51A. AnisimovC000000.000102011:15
78F. ChlapikC000000.00410010:00
49S. SabourinR000010.04502—07:14
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(W)30282.9331.72-0.2860:00

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).