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Sabres at Senators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Ottawa Senators
▸3
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-1. The Senators scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jean-Gabriel Pageau's goal at 5:16 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.9 to 2.6; shots on goal were BUF 44, OTT 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 27 of 29 (.931); Craig Anderson stopped 43 of 44 (.977), 1.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Craig Anderson (43 saves, .977), 2. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2 G), 3. Brady Tkachuk (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    C. Anderson43 saves, .977
  2. ★★
    OTT
    J. Pageau2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF014111019144
OTTOTT11001128329

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    J. Pageau(17)
    B. Tkachuk (10), M. Borowiecki (11)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    19:06

2nd period

  1. BUF
    Z. Girgensons(6)
    E. Rodrigues (3)
    deflectedxG 0.05win prob +21 pts
    1-1
    15:12

3rd period

  1. OTT
    J. Pageau(18)
    B. Tkachuk (11), C. Brown (16)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +27 pts
    1-2
    5:16
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(13)
    C. Brown (17)
    xG 0.61win prob +6 pts
    1-3
    18:35

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·OTT 4 PIM

2nd

  • 0:40OTTChris Tierney · Hookingdrawn by Marco Scandella2 min
  • 3:41BUFJimmy Vesey · Hookingdrawn by Artem Anisimov2 min
  • 7:12BUFZach Bogosian · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Ennis2 min

3rd

  • 5:47OTTVladislav Namestnikov · Trippingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalBUF goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, 3rd 5:16 — OTT 52% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.61J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.21B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.18J. Pageau · Goal · xG 0.18T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.14N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.14C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.13J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.12C. White · On goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10L. Brown · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08J. Beaudin · On goal · xG 0.06C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.06V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.06J. Pageau · Goal · xG 0.03A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.03E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.03C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.02C. Goloubef · Missed · xG 0.02A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.02C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.02T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.01C. Goloubef · Missed · xG 0.01A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01M. Lajoie · On goal · xG 0.00E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 2.6 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsOTT
2.91 G
All situations
3 G2.6
2.41 G
Even strength
3 G1.4
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF66%34%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.84 – 1.97

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsOTT
44
Shots on goal
29
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
22
Hits
30
17
Blocked shots
20
9
Giveaways
14
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000-130.03120—23:00
9J. EichelC000-340.331104322:33
23S. ReinhartC000-330.27520021:12
90M. JohanssonL000020.090005021:03
53J. SkinnerL000-150.210105019:35
26R. DahlinD000-110.14000—19:30
68V. OlofssonL000-340.41110—19:18
10H. JokiharjuD000-110.01200—18:19
28Z. GirgensonsC101+120.07100016:25
6M. ScandellaD000020.09320—16:04
13J. VeseyL000040.46002—15:46
62B. MontourD000-120.09100—15:06
19J. McCabeD000010.06210—14:11
71E. RodriguesC011+160.341006713:54
43C. ShearyL000+110.10010—13:52
4Z. BogosianD000010.02242—10:53
27C. LazarC000010.102105009:08
74R. AsplundC000010.03010008:01
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(L)29272.9311.98-0.0258:10

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).