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Red Wings at Avalanche
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV NHLN, FS-D·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Detroit Red Wings 6-3. The Red Wings scored first; the Avalanche answered. The Avalanche led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 2:56 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.1 to 2.0; shots on goal were DET 25, COL 46. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Jimmy Howard stopped 40 of 45 (.889), 1.4 goals below expected; Pavel Francouz stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nazem Kadri (2 G, 1 A), 2. Cale Makar (2 A), 3. Mikko Rantanen (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. Kadri2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    C. Makar2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET1120726325
COLCOL018216412646

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    T. Bertuzzi(17)
    D. Larkin (21)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:28

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. Kadri(16)PPG
    C. Makar (25), M. Rantanen (18)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    1:02
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(29)
    C. Makar (26), M. Rantanen (19)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    2:56

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. Kadri(17)
    A. Burakovsky (18), N. Zadorov (6)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    4:19
  2. COL
    M. Nieto(7)
    T. Jost (9), R. Graves (11)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +5 pts
    1-4
    5:12
  3. DET
    D. Larkin(13)
    T. Bertuzzi (19), F. Zadina (7)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +4 pts
    2-4
    7:02
  4. COL
    R. Graves(8)
    A. Burakovsky (19), N. Kadri (14)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +2 pts
    2-5
    13:59
  5. DET
    G. Smith(2)
    R. Fabbri (13), D. Larkin (22)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +1 pts
    3-5
    17:57
  6. COL
    N. MacKinnon(30)EN
    I. Cole (19), N. Zadorov (7)
    wristxG 0.47win prob +1 pts
    3-6
    19:00

Penalties

DET 10 PIM·COL 4 PIM

1st

  • 6:56DETPatrik Nemeth · Trippingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 9:06DETPatrik Nemeth · Trippingdrawn by Andre Burakovsky2 min
  • 12:01COLMatt Calvert · High sticking double minordrawn by Mike Green4 min
  • 17:33DETTyler Bertuzzi · High sticking double minordrawn by Andre Burakovsky4 min

2nd

  • 14:53DETMadison Bowey · Trippingdrawn by Vladislav Kamenev2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalDET goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 2nd 2:56 — COL 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.47N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.22C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.18V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.16N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.16M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.15M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.14N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.14M. Nieto · Goal · xG 0.13T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.12G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.12A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.09V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.09T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.08A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.08S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.07G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.07N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.06S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.06S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.06G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.05N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.04I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.02R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.02E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.02R. Graves · Goal · xG 0.01E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.01T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 4.1 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsCOL
2.03 G
All situations
5 G4.1
1.73 G
Even strength
4 G2.3
0.00 G
Power play
1 G1.3
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET23%77%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.92 – 3.56

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsCOL
25
Shots on goal
46
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/2
Power play
1/5
10
Penalty minutes
4
27
Hits
18
15
Blocked shots
12
7
Giveaways
9
12
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
17F. HronekD000-140.11320—27:14
74M. BoweyD000+200.00032—23:57
71D. LarkinC123030.230104522:32
22P. NemethD000+300.00114—21:35
3A. BiegaD000-420.04310—20:55
51V. FilppulaC000-200.000101318:57
59T. BertuzziL112-130.35104—18:48
11F. ZadinaR011-120.03110—18:06
41L. GlendeningC000-120.382005216:39
83T. DaleyD000-300.00010—15:54
14R. FabbriC011-110.24200015:53
43D. HelmC000-100.00300015:44
8J. AbdelkaderL000000.055105012:30
48G. SmithR101030.22210—11:15
73A. ErneL000-110.00310—11:00
25M. GreenD000010.02110—08:54
29B. PerliniL000030.29000—08:44
81F. NielsenC000000.0000010001:59
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35J. Howard(L)45405.8893.61-1.3959:55

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).