Islanders at Devils 4-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

New York Islanders

▸4

New Jersey Devils

Final/OTTV MSG+, MSG·Prudential Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the New Jersey Devils 4-3 in overtime, Anders Lee scoring at 4:09. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anders Lee's goal at 4:09 of overtime, which took the Islanders' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 4.9 to 3.2; shots on goal were NYI 41, NJD 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 73% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 32 of 35 (.914); Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 37 of 41 (.902), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Anders Lee (1 G), 2. Nico Hischier (1 G, 1 A), 3. Kyle Palmieri (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
A. Lee1 G
★★
N. Hischier1 G, 1 A
★★★
K. Palmieri1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYI	211	018	110	12	441
NJD	18	112	113	02	335

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

C. Cizikas(9)
M. Martin (3), L. Komarov (7)
wristxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
1-0
3:38
P. Subban(5)
M. Wood (7), B. Street (1)
slapxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
1-1
8:37
J. Eberle(4)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.30win prob +13 pts
2-1
10:17

2nd period

N. Hischier(10)
K. Palmieri (14), W. Simmonds (11)
backhandxG 0.04win prob +23 pts
2-2
18:24

3rd period

K. Palmieri(16)PPG
N. Hischier (16), D. Severson (9)
wristxG 0.10win prob +26 pts
2-3
11:55
T. Kuhnhackl(3)
M. Dal Colle (4)
slapxG 0.02win prob +36 pts
3-3
14:14

Overtime

A. Lee(13)
D. Toews (12), M. Barzal (19)
wristxG 0.14win prob +51 pts
4-3
4:09

Penalties

2 PIM·

0 PIM

3rd

11:36Thomas Greiss · Hookingdrawn by Nikita Gusev2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NJD

Biggest swing: Anders Lee, OT 4:09 — NYI 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 3.2 xG · 52 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 4.9 xG · 54 att NJD

3 G · 3.2 xG · 52 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.94 G
All situations: 3 G3.2; 4.94 G
Even strength: 2 G2.9; 0.00 G
Power play: 1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 106 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

73%27%

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.87 – 3.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

41
Shots on goal: 35; 46%
Faceoffs: 54%; 0/0
Power play: 1/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 0; 21
Hits: 18; 10
Blocked shots: 17; 7
Giveaways: 15; 14
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	FO%	TOI
2N. LeddyD	0	0	0	+2	2	0.16	1	2	—	25:58
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	+2	4	0.09	0	1	—	24:12
25D. ToewsD	0	1	1	0	3	0.04	3	3	—	24:08
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	0	0	3	0.16	3	0	—	20:52
13M. BarzalC	0	1	1	0	2	0.30	1	0	50	19:54
18A. BeauvillierR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.43	0	1	—	18:45
7J. EberleR	1	0	1	+1	3	0.80	1	0	—	17:44
27A. LeeL	1	0	1	+2	6	0.85	0	1	—	17:31
12J. BaileyR	0	0	0	-1	3	0.45	0	0	63	17:23
29B. NelsonC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.56	1	0	47	16:14
47L. KomarovR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	3	0	—	16:02
53C. CizikasC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.23	2	0	24	15:30
17M. MartinL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.32	1	1	—	14:54
55J. BoychukD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.17	2	1	—	14:48
8N. DobsonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	—	14:11
10D. BrassardC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	75	11:42
28M. Dal ColleL	0	1	1	0	1	0.04	1	0	—	11:40
14T. KuhnhacklR	1	0	1	0	3	0.32	1	0	—	10:40

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
1T. Greiss(W)	35	32	3	.914	3.25	+0.25	64:09

Season series

Tied 1-1

Jan 22@1Final
Jan 74@3OTthis game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

Overtime

3rd

Box score