Flames at Ducks 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Calgary Flames

▸2

Anaheim Ducks

FinalTV PRIME, SN360·Honda Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Anaheim Ducks 2-1. The Ducks scored first; the Flames answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikael Backlund's goal at 8:57 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 48% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Ducks, 3.2 to 2.0; shots on goal were CGY 29, ANA 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 2.2 goals saved above expected; John Gibson stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. Cam Talbot (29 saves, .967), 2. Jakob Silfverberg (1 G), 3. John Gibson (27 saves, .931).

Three stars

★
C. Talbot29 saves, .967
★★
J. Silfverberg1 G
★★★
J. Gibson27 saves, .931

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	011	112	16	229
ANA	09	110	011	130

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

J. Silfverberg(5)
H. Lindholm (6), J. Manson (3)
wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
0-1
0:12
M. Stone(1)
J. Gaudreau (5), T. Brodie (3)
slapxG 0.05win prob +21 pts
1-1
15:32

3rd period

M. Backlund(2)
M. Tkachuk (6), A. Czarnik (1)
snapxG 0.12win prob +31 pts
2-1
8:57

Penalties

6 PIM·

0 PIM

1st

12:48Mark Jankowski · Trippingdrawn by Ondrej Kase2 min

2nd

6:10Michael Stone · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Getzlaf2 min

3rd

10:17Elias Lindholm · Trippingdrawn by Hampus Lindholm2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: ANA

Biggest swing: Mikael Backlund, 3rd 8:57 — CGY 48% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.2 xG · 51 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.0 xG · 43 att ANA

1 G · 3.2 xG · 51 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.02 G
All situations: 1 G3.2; 2.02 G
Even strength: 1 G2.2; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

31%69%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.00 – 3.09

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

29
Shots on goal: 30; 41%
Faceoffs: 59%; 0/0
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 0; 21
Hits: 15; 16
Blocked shots: 13; 13
Giveaways: 8; 9
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Calgary Flames skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
24T. HamonicD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.04	2	0	0	—	25:39
55N. HanifinD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.05	2	4	0	—	24:26
5M. GiordanoD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.10	3	3	0	—	22:24
11M. BacklundC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.24	0	0	0	36	19:24
4R. AnderssonD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.08	0	1	0	—	19:02
28E. LindholmC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	2	55	17:55
13J. GaudreauL	0	1	1	0	3	0.12	0	0	0	—	17:14
23S. MonahanC	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	2	0	0	38	16:29
7T. BrodieD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	0	1	0	—	16:29
19M. TkachukL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.10	3	1	0	—	15:58
27A. CzarnikC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.01	1	0	0	50	14:51
10D. RyanC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	30	14:08
67M. FrolikR	0	0	0	0	1	0.20	0	0	0	—	12:58
26M. StoneD	1	0	1	+1	4	0.17	1	3	2	—	12:12
17M. LucicL	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	4	0	0	100	11:54
77M. JankowskiL	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	0	2	2	40	11:53
16T. RiederL	0	0	0	0	3	0.24	2	1	0	—	11:14
89A. QuineC	0	0	0	0	3	0.40	0	0	0	0	09:50

Calgary Flames goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
39C. Talbot(W)	30	29	1	.967	3.17	+2.17	60:00

Season series

CGY leads 3-0

Oct 202@1this game
Feb 136@0Final
Feb 174@6Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score