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Wild at Predators
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
2
Nashville Predators
▸5
FinalTV NBCSN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Minnesota Wild 5-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Wild led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Austin Watson's goal at 1:56 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 52% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.6 to 1.7; shots on goal were MIN 24, NSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Devan Dubnyk stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.3 goals below expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 22 of 24 (.917). Three stars: 1. Ryan Ellis (1 G, 1 A), 2. Matt Duchene (3 A), 3. Pekka Rinne (22 saves, .917).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Ellis1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    M. Duchene3 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    P. Rinne22 saves, .917

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN0626012224
NSHNSH01418410532

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. NSH
    R. Ellis(1)
    F. Forsberg (1), M. Duchene (1)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    3:37
  2. MIN
    J. Zucker(1)PPG
    B. Hunt (1), M. Koivu (1)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    16:04
  3. MIN
    M. Dumba(1)
    M. Foligno (1), R. Suter (1)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +22 pts
    2-1
    16:47

3rd period

  1. NSH
    M. Granlund(1)
    R. Josi (1), M. Duchene (2)
    slapxG 0.20win prob +24 pts
    2-2
    0:27
  2. NSH
    A. Watson(1)
    R. Ellis (1), N. Bonino (1)
    tip-inxG 0.16win prob +24 pts
    2-3
    1:56
  3. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(1)
    C. Smith (1), R. Johansen (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    2-4
    7:32
  4. NSH
    F. Forsberg(1)EN
    M. Ekholm (1), M. Duchene (3)
    tip-inxG 0.88win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    18:34

Penalties

MIN 4 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:32MINMats Zuccarello · Hookingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 5:52MINNick Seeler · Holdingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 9:16NSHRoman Josi · Slashingdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min

2nd

  • 8:43NSHCraig Smith · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Devan Dubnyk2 min
  • 15:17NSHserved by R. Grimaldi · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalMIN goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Austin Watson, 3rd 1:56 — NSH 52% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.88M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.22F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.22M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.20M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.16A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.16F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.11V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.10V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.10C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.10R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.10R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.09V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.08M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.07R. Ellis · Goal · xG 0.07N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.07R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.05V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.05K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.04D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.04C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.03Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.03R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.03D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.02A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Ellis · Missed · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.01R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.01N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ellis · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamhuis · Missed · xG 0.01K. Turris · Missed · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.00Y. Weber · Missed · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 3.6 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsNSH
1.72 G
All situations
4 G3.6
1.41 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN32%68%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.72 – 2.69

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsNSH
24
Shots on goal
32
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
19
Hits
17
18
Blocked shots
12
7
Giveaways
12
9
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
24M. DumbaD101-230.12220—25:24
20R. SuterD011-210.05220—24:13
25J. BrodinD000-210.03020—21:40
46J. SpurgeonD000-220.20120—20:06
9M. KoivuC011-100.000006116:39
19L. KuninC000-240.463104316:20
22K. FialaL000-110.06110—16:18
36M. ZuccarelloR000-310.07002—16:07
16J. ZuckerL101-150.48100—16:03
55N. SeelerD000000.00022—14:31
18J. GreenwayL000-110.04310—14:19
14J. Eriksson EkC000+100.000402514:13
77B. HuntD011000.00000—14:06
11Z. PariseL000-300.00100—13:56
12E. StaalC000-300.000103613:40
6R. DonatoC000-120.09000013:28
17M. FolignoL011+120.10400—13:17
38R. HartmanR000+110.01100—12:24
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40D. Dubnyk(L)31274.8712.72-1.2859:16

Season series

NSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).