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Avalanche at Flames
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Calgary Flames
1
FinalTV NBCSN, ALT·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Calgary Flames 5-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colin Wilson's goal at 6:52 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 65% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.6 to 2.8; shots on goal were COL 32, CGY 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 2.6 goals saved above expected; Mike Smith stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mikko Rantanen (2 G, 1 A), 2. Colin Wilson (2 G, 1 A), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Rantanen2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    C. Wilson2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL21521017532
CGYCGY1901406129

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(1)
    T. Barrie (3), N. MacKinnon (3)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    9:40
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(4)
    C. Makar (1), C. Wilson (2)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    15:38
  3. CGY
    T. Brodie(2)
    S. Bennett (4)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    19:54

2nd period

  1. COL
    C. Wilson(1)
    M. Rantanen (4)
    snapxG 0.26win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    6:52
  2. COL
    C. Wilson(2)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (4), T. Barrie (4)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +8 pts
    4-1
    14:47

3rd period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(5)PPG
    T. Barrie (5), N. MacKinnon (5)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +2 pts
    5-1
    0:57

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·CGY 10 PIM

1st

  • 13:54COLCale Makar · Ps hooking on breakawaydrawn by Johnny Gaudreau0 min

2nd

  • 3:32COLGabriel Landeskog · Hookingdrawn by Mikael Backlund2 min
  • 13:06CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Interferencedrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 17:46COLNikita Zadorov · High stickingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
  • 19:36CGYSam Bennett · Hookingdrawn by Matt Nieto2 min

3rd

  • 2:03CGYTJ Brodie · Cross checkingdrawn by Colin Wilson2 min
  • 2:33COLNathan MacKinnon · Interferencedrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min
  • 15:41CGYMichael Frolik · Cross checkingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 17:23CGYGarnet Hathaway · Slashingdrawn by Patrik Nemeth2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalCOL goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Colin Wilson, 2nd 6:52 — COL 65% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.41M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.32M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.21J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.19J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.19E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.18J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.16E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.15D. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.15M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.13E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.12E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.11E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.11S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.09S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.08S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.08M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.07J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.06D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.06G. Hathaway · Missed · xG 0.06J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.05T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.05T. Brodie · Goal · xG 0.05T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.04M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.04R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.04M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.04T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.03M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.03R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.03J. Välimäki · On goal · xG 0.03M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.03M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.02A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.01G. Hathaway · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.01S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.01M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY1 G · 3.6 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsCGY
2.85 G
All situations
1 G3.6
2.23 G
Even strength
1 G1.7
0.62 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL42%58%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.75 – 3.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsCGY
32
Shots on goal
29
41%
Faceoffs
59%
2/5
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
11
Hits
44
17
Blocked shots
10
13
Giveaways
26
24
Takeaways
30

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4T. BarrieD033+120.07100—20:03
6E. JohnsonD000-110.00240—19:57
28I. ColeD000-100.03120—19:48
8C. MakarD011+200.10030—19:26
16N. ZadorovD000+130.12222—19:18
92G. LandeskogL101+120.161024018:07
12P. NemethD000+220.07110—17:56
29N. MacKinnonC033020.190222717:44
22C. WilsonC213+220.500102517:32
96M. RantanenR213+250.42000—17:15
11M. CalvertL000-120.21100—16:12
37J. CompherL000010.060004316:08
34C. SoderbergC000+110.190003815:37
83M. NietoL000-130.28020—15:37
13A. KerfootC000+110.20000015:00
17T. JostC000+130.100006710:16
57G. BourqueL000000.002005009:44
10S. AndrighettoR000020.11000—09:19
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(W)29281.9663.57+2.5759:01

Series

COL leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).