Lightning at Maple Leafs 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Tampa Bay Lightning

▸3

Toronto Maple Leafs

FinalTV SUN, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-1. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Lightning answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Killorn's goal at 14:12 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 48% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.5 to 3.2; shots on goal were TBL 29, TOR 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 2.2 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Steven Stamkos (1 G, 1 A), 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (29 saves, .967), 3. Mitch Marner (1 G).

Three stars

★
S. Stamkos1 G, 1 A
★★
A. Vasilevskiy29 saves, .967
★★★
M. Marner1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	012	18	29	329
TOR	19	09	012	130

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

M. Marner(26)
Z. Hyman (19)
wristxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
0-1
4:41

2nd period

S. Stamkos(44)SHG
R. McDonagh (35)
wristxG 0.19win prob +17 pts
1-1
5:37

3rd period

A. Killorn(18)
S. Stamkos (53), M. Sergachev (26)
snapxG 0.12win prob +38 pts
2-1
14:12
N. Kucherov(40)EN
R. McDonagh (36)
wristxG 0.53win prob +5 pts
3-1
19:05

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

5:17Braydon Coburn · Hookingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min
8:53Trevor Moore · Hookingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
10:27Mikhail Sergachev · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TOR

Biggest swing: Alex Killorn, 3rd 14:12 — TBL 48% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.2 xG · 45 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 3.5 xG · 45 att TOR

1 G · 3.2 xG · 45 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.52 G
All situations: 1 G3.2; 2.41 G
Even strength: 1 G2.3; 0.30 G
Power play: 0 G0.8; 0.21 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

46%54%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.95 – 3.19

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

29
Shots on goal: 30; 55%
Faceoffs: 45%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 28
Hits: 26; 14
Blocked shots: 10; 8
Giveaways: 22; 8
Takeaways: 11

Box score

every player line

Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
27R. McDonaghD	0	2	2	+1	0	0.02	2	2	0	—	24:06
81E. CernakD	0	0	0	+1	4	0.08	3	3	0	—	21:03
86N. KucherovR	1	0	1	0	3	0.71	0	1	0	—	20:26
6A. StralmanD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	1	0	—	19:30
21B. PointC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.48	1	1	0	46	18:47
98M. SergachevD	0	1	1	+1	4	0.07	3	0	2	—	18:36
44J. RuttaD	0	0	0	0	3	0.12	0	0	0	—	17:59
91S. StamkosC	1	1	2	+2	3	0.88	0	1	0	67	17:31
55B. CoburnD	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	3	0	2	—	17:22
37Y. GourdeC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	0	0	0	50	16:36
9T. JohnsonC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.21	1	1	0	100	15:55
18O. PalatL	0	0	0	0	2	0.33	3	0	0	—	15:50
13C. PaquetteC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.14	0	2	0	56	12:48
73A. ErneL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	—	12:41
71A. CirelliC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.13	1	1	0	50	12:31
17A. KillornL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.17	1	0	0	—	12:07
7M. JosephR	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	2	0	0	—	11:33
24R. CallahanR	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	1	0	—	11:15

Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)	30	29	1	.967	3.21	+2.21	59:24

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

Box score