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Lightning at Maple Leafs
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV ESPN+, SUN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Cirelli's goal at 18:38 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 62% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.9 to 1.8; shots on goal were TBL 42, TOR 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of 28 (.929); Garret Sparks stopped 21 of 23 (.913). Three stars: 1. Tyler Johnson (2 G), 2. Cedric Paquette (2 G), 3. Ryan McDonagh (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    T. Johnson2 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    C. Paquette2 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    R. McDonagh2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL214313115642
TORTOR0911019228

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    T. Johnson(23)
    R. McDonagh (27), N. Kucherov (78)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    10:07
  2. TBL
    A. Cirelli(14)
    M. Sergachev (20), A. Killorn (21)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    18:38

2nd period

  1. TBL
    T. Johnson(24)
    B. Point (46), R. McDonagh (28)
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    4:20
  2. TBL
    O. Palat(8)
    B. Coburn (16), J. Rutta (5)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +6 pts
    4-0
    4:50
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(31)
    A. Johnsson (18), N. Zaitsev (8)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +4 pts
    4-1
    11:49
  4. TBL
    C. Paquette(11)SHG
    V. Hedman (35), Y. Gourde (22)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +4 pts
    5-1
    18:16

3rd period

  1. TBL
    C. Paquette(12)
    Y. Gourde (23), J. Rutta (6)
    tip-inxG 0.08
    6-1
    5:59
  2. TOR
    C. Brown(6)
    P. Marleau (21), N. Kadri (22)
    wristxG 0.16
    6-2
    19:55

Penalties

TBL 4 PIM·TOR 2 PIM

1st

  • 5:56TORJake Muzzin · Interferencedrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min

2nd

  • 17:03TBLErik Cernak · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Ennis2 min

3rd

  • 13:27TBLMathieu Joseph · Trippingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalTBL goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli, 1st 18:38 — TBL 62% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.19C. Brown · Goal · xG 0.16Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.14W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.11M. Marincin · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.10M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.09N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.07A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.07T. Moore · Missed · xG 0.06P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.05A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Moore · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.03N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.03R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.02R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.01M. Marincin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.01I. Ozhiganov · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01I. Ozhiganov · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01T. Moore · On goal · xG 0.01I. Ozhiganov · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 1.8 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsTOR
2.96 G
All situations
2 G1.8
2.75 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.11 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL68%32%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.83 – 1.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsTOR
42
Shots on goal
28
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
20
Hits
14
8
Blocked shots
7
16
Giveaways
21
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011030.10000—22:09
98M. SergachevD011+110.05100—20:01
27R. McDonaghD022+330.06410—19:58
55B. CoburnD011+160.34000—19:44
81E. CernakD000+250.06102—19:37
86N. KucherovR011+120.03200—17:47
91S. StamkosC000010.200004317:12
44J. RuttaD022+110.04020—16:52
10J. MillerC000+100.001105016:31
21B. PointC011+140.620005016:20
18O. PalatL101+130.20100—14:46
9T. JohnsonC202050.48010014:37
17A. KillornL011+120.06200—14:18
71A. CirelliC101+110.052005014:06
37Y. GourdeC022+210.02110013:58
13C. PaquetteC202+130.462205013:22
7M. JosephR000+110.09102—12:37
73A. ErneL000+100.00200—12:05
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)28262.9291.84-0.1660:00

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).