Maple Leafs at Islanders 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Toronto Maple Leafs

▸2

New York Islanders

FinalTV MSG+ 2, SNO·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the New York Islanders 2-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 3:50 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 74% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.0 to 2.5; shots on goal were TOR 38, NYI 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 1.5 goals saved above expected; Robin Lehner stopped 36 of 38 (.947), 1.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (1 G), 2. Jordan Eberle (1 G), 3. Calle Rosen (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. Tavares1 G
★★
J. Eberle1 G
★★★
C. Rosen1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	016	111	111	238
NYI	012	09	18	129

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

C. Rosen(1)
C. Brown (21), N. Kadri (26)
slapxG 0.02win prob +17 pts
1-0
2:17

3rd period

J. Tavares(46)
M. Marner (67)
snapxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
2-0
3:50
J. Eberle(19)PPG
B. Nelson (28), A. Lee (23)
snapxG 0.14win prob +7 pts
2-1
14:55

Penalties

8 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

17:35Tom Kuhnhackl · Holdingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

2nd

9:35Nazem Kadri · Roughingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min
11:46Morgan Rielly · Trippingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min

3rd

4:06John Tavares · Slashingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
10:26Adam Pelech · Holdingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
13:41Auston Matthews · Hookingdrawn by Jordan Eberle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

Biggest swing: John Tavares, 3rd 3:50 — TOR 74% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.5 xG · 38 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 4.0 xG · 54 att NYI

1 G · 2.5 xG · 38 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.02 G
All situations: 1 G2.5; 2.72 G
Even strength: 0 G1.9; 1.20 G
Power play: 1 G0.7; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

72%28%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.92 – 2.50

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

38
Shots on goal: 29; 53%
Faceoffs: 47%; 0/2
Power play: 1/4; 8
Penalty minutes: 4; 21
Hits: 25; 19
Blocked shots: 11; 26
Giveaways: 23; 8
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
44M. RiellyD	0	0	0	0	4	0.25	0	1	2	—	24:18
2R. HainseyD	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	0	5	0	—	23:26
22N. ZaitsevD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.13	2	0	0	—	23:15
16M. MarnerR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.18	1	1	0	100	22:54
8J. MuzzinD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	2	1	0	—	20:35
24K. KapanenR	0	0	0	0	3	0.24	6	0	0	—	20:15
34A. MatthewsC	0	0	0	0	2	0.20	1	1	2	33	19:26
11Z. HymanL	0	0	0	+1	3	0.44	0	0	0	50	19:23
91J. TavaresC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.83	1	1	2	64	18:47
23T. DermottD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.13	1	1	0	—	15:36
29W. NylanderR	0	0	0	0	3	0.36	0	0	0	43	15:04
28C. BrownR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	0	4	0	—	14:21
43N. KadriC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.29	1	1	2	60	13:06
12P. MarleauC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.25	0	1	0	0	10:58
48C. RosenD	1	0	1	+1	2	0.04	0	0	0	—	09:37
63T. EnnisR	0	0	0	0	2	0.43	3	0	0	—	07:54
33F. GauthierC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	1	0	42	07:51
42T. MooreL	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	1	1	0	—	06:09

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31F. Andersen(W)	29	28	1	.966	2.52	+1.52	59:51

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Dec 294@0Final
Feb 281@6Final
Apr 12@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score