Wild at Capitals 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Minnesota Wild

▸2

Washington Capitals

FinalTV NHLN, FS-N·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Washington Capitals 2-1. The Wild scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Luke Kunin's goal at 12:25 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 48% to 84%. Expected goals were close — MIN 2.3, WSH 2.1; shots on goal were MIN 27, WSH 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Devan Dubnyk stopped 21 of 22 (.955), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Braden Holtby stopped 25 of 27 (.926). Three stars: 1. Devan Dubnyk (21 saves, .955), 2. Luke Kunin (1 G), 3. Braden Holtby (25 saves, .926).

Three stars

★
D. Dubnyk21 saves, .955
★★
L. Kunin1 G
★★★
B. Holtby25 saves, .926

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	16	015	16	227
WSH	06	19	07	122

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

J. Greenway(12)
R. Donato (13), D. Dubnyk (2)
wristxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
1-0
16:33

2nd period

B. Connolly(21)
N. Jensen (15), T. Oshie (26)
tip-inxG 0.09win prob +19 pts
1-1
10:42

3rd period

L. Kunin(6)
Z. Parise (33), R. Donato (14)
wristxG 0.09win prob +35 pts
2-1
12:25

Penalties

8 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

4:52Kevin Fiala · High stickingdrawn by John Carlson2 min
18:46Marcus Foligno · Trippingdrawn by Travis Boyd2 min

2nd

4:18Brad Hunt · Slashingdrawn by Brett Connolly2 min
8:00Brooks Orpik · Roughingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
8:00Jason Zucker · Roughingdrawn by Brooks Orpik2 min
19:51Tom Wilson · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Suter2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WSH

Biggest swing: Luke Kunin, 3rd 12:25 — MIN 48% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.1 xG · 42 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.3 xG · 44 att WSH

1 G · 2.1 xG · 42 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.32 G
All situations: 1 G2.1; 2.12 G
Even strength: 1 G1.4; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.6; 0.20 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

54%46%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.27 – 2.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

27
Shots on goal: 22; 48%
Faceoffs: 52%; 0/1
Power play: 0/3; 8
Penalty minutes: 4; 16
Hits: 15; 22
Blocked shots: 13; 8
Giveaways: 12; 8
Takeaways: 13

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	3	0	—	27:22
20R. SuterD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	1	2	0	—	26:58
25J. BrodinD	0	0	0	+2	2	0.01	2	4	0	—	19:27
19L. KuninC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.26	0	1	0	42	19:21
11Z. PariseL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.44	0	0	0	—	18:38
12E. StaalC	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	3	0	0	47	18:11
29G. PaterynD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	4	0	—	17:27
77B. HuntD	0	0	0	+2	3	0.18	1	0	2	—	17:09
22K. FialaL	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	0	1	2	—	15:46
21E. FehrC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	0	55	15:34
16J. ZuckerL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.35	0	1	2	—	13:44
18J. GreenwayL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.20	3	1	0	—	13:22
17M. FolignoL	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	1	2	—	13:07
6R. DonatoC	0	2	2	+1	3	0.42	1	1	0	0	12:20
2A. BitettoD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	0	—	11:41
49V. RaskC	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0	0	0	43	10:48
10M. ReadR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	10:43
23J. BrownR	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	1	0	—	10:23

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40D. Dubnyk(W)	22	21	1	.955	2.08	+1.08	59:59

Season series

Tied 1-1

Nov 135@2Final
Mar 222@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score