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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Ottawa Senators
▸6
FinalTV SNO, CBC·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Magnus Paajarvi's goal at 13:51 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 73% to 88%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.9, OTT 2.8; shots on goal were TOR 37, OTT 44. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Garret Sparks stopped 38 of 44 (.864), 3.2 goals below expected; Anders Nilsson stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Anders Nilsson (35 saves, .946), 2. Magnus Paajarvi (2 G), 3. Zack Smith (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    A. Nilsson35 saves, .946
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Paajarvi2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    Z. Smith3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR01019118237
OTTOTT117313214644

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    C. Ceci(6)
    C. Wolanin (5), M. Veronneau (1)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:36

2nd period

  1. OTT
    B. Gibbons(5)
    D. DeMelo (13), M. Boedker (27)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    6:48
  2. TOR
    M. Rielly(20)
    J. Tavares (39)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    12:33
  3. OTT
    M. Paajarvi(8)
    R. Balcers (5), C. Tierney (36)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    13:51
  4. OTT
    M. Paajarvi(9)
    Z. Smith (17), M. Borowiecki (4)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +7 pts
    1-4
    18:50

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(40)PPG
    A. Matthews (32), W. Nylander (17)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    5:13
  2. OTT
    A. Duclair(14)
    B. Harpur (4), Z. Smith (18)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +4 pts
    2-5
    8:36
  3. OTT
    O. Lindberg(8)
    C. Ceci (18), Z. Smith (19)
    backhandxG 0.24
    2-6
    14:21

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

2nd

  • 2:30TORZach Hyman · Holdingdrawn by Christian Jaros2 min
  • 9:10TORRon Hainsey · Holding the stickdrawn by Max Veronneau2 min
  • 14:12TORPatrick Marleau · Trippingdrawn by Ben Harpur2 min

3rd

  • 3:27OTTMark Borowiecki · Trippingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
  • 3:27OTTZack Smith · Roughingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 5:52TORPatrick Marleau · Slashingdrawn by Zack Smith2 min
  • 16:05OTTRudolfs Balcers · High stickingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Magnus Paajarvi, 2nd 13:51 — OTT 73% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
O. Lindberg · Goal · xG 0.24M. Veronneau · On goal · xG 0.23M. Veronneau · On goal · xG 0.18B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.15B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.15B. Gibbons · Goal · xG 0.13M. Paajarvi · Goal · xG 0.13B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.12M. Paajarvi · Missed · xG 0.11B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.11A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.11C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.10C. Wolanin · On goal · xG 0.09C. Ceci · Goal · xG 0.09A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.08M. Paajarvi · Goal · xG 0.07R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.05M. Boedker · On goal · xG 0.05R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.05R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.04A. Duclair · Goal · xG 0.03B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.03O. Lindberg · Missed · xG 0.03J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.03M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.03C. Jaros · On goal · xG 0.03C. Wolanin · On goal · xG 0.03A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.02M. Boedker · Missed · xG 0.02B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02M. Boedker · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jaros · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01C. Wolanin · On goal · xG 0.01B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01M. Boedker · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jaros · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jaros · Missed · xG 0.01B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.01C. Wolanin · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.00C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.00B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.00J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.00C. Jaros · On goal · xG 0.00M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.00D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.00Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT6 G · 2.8 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
2.92 G
All situations
6 G2.8
1.91 G
Even strength
6 G2.4
1.11 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR53%47%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.93 – 2.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
37
Shots on goal
44
60%
Faceoffs
40%
1/3
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
29
Hits
25
12
Blocked shots
22
6
Giveaways
14
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD101-340.29000—24:55
8J. MuzzinD000+130.19300—23:41
22N. ZaitsevD000000.01330—20:51
29W. NylanderR011-230.452006719:25
16M. MarnerR000-110.04100—19:15
34A. MatthewsC011-290.752006718:36
2R. HainseyD000-310.01212—16:27
52M. MarincinD000-110.03000—15:51
18A. JohnssonL000-210.23010—15:50
12P. MarleauC000-200.001045015:26
91J. TavaresC112-140.450305415:17
3J. HollD000-420.01000—14:40
11Z. HymanL000-110.072125014:30
43N. KadriC000-210.021007012:57
28C. BrownR000-220.0730010012:47
42T. MooreL000040.21100—10:47
33F. GauthierC000000.035305010:40
63T. EnnisR000000.09300—10:11
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40G. Sparks(L)44386.8642.82-3.1859:54

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).