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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Thomas Chabot's goal at 1:42 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 48% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.3 to 2.7; shots on goal were OTT 24, TOR 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 34 of 37 (.919); Frederik Andersen stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Thomas Chabot (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A), 3. Craig Anderson (34 saves, .919).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    T. Chabot2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. Anderson34 saves, .919

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT1621028524
TORTOR012312013337

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    D. DeMelo(1)
    Z. Smith (1), T. Chabot (2)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    9:42

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Rielly(1)
    M. Marner (1), Z. Hyman (1)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    0:29
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(3)
    P. Marleau (2), T. Ennis (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    1:10
  3. OTT
    T. Chabot(1)
    M. Boedker (1), Z. Smith (2)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    3:49
  4. OTT
    C. Tierney(1)
    R. Dzingel (2)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    4:27
  5. TOR
    M. Marner(1)PPG
    A. Matthews (1), M. Rielly (2)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    3-3
    18:20

3rd period

  1. OTT
    T. Chabot(2)
    B. Ryan (1), C. Anderson (1)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +25 pts
    4-3
    1:42
  2. OTT
    M. Stone(1)EN
    M. Duchene (2)
    snapxG 0.53win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    19:35

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 4:27TORJosh Leivo · Slashingdrawn by Ryan Dzingel2 min
  • 14:13OTTChris Wideman · Ps slash on breakawaydrawn by Mitch Marner0 min

2nd

  • 11:36OTTCody Ceci · Hookingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min
  • 18:00OTTRyan Dzingel · Holdingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

3rd

  • 8:23TORPar Lindholm · Holdingdrawn by Colin White2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Thomas Chabot, 3rd 1:42 — OTT 48% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.20A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.16J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.14M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.13M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.13A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13P. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.12A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.11M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.11M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.10N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.10M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.10P. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.08P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.07J. Leivo · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.06C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.06N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.05T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.05P. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.05K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.05P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.05P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.04C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.04J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.03J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.03T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03I. Ozhiganov · On goal · xG 0.03C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.03C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.02P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.02T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.02T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.02T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01
TOR3 G · 3.3 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
2.74 G
All situations
3 G3.3
2.04 G
Even strength
2 G2.7
0.10 G
Power play
1 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT31%69%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.11 – 3.23

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
24
Shots on goal
37
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
26
Hits
30
27
Blocked shots
8
14
Giveaways
8
7
Takeaways
16

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5C. CeciD000000.04242—22:00
58M. LajoieD000-120.03330—21:56
72T. ChabotD213+450.57010—21:31
95M. DucheneC011020.161305019:08
2D. DeMeloD101+410.10220—18:34
61M. StoneR101+220.72110—18:22
18R. DzingelC011020.37312018:17
71C. TierneyC101+210.140206118:06
74M. BorowieckiD000020.01400—17:58
9B. RyanR011+110.11210—16:19
6C. WidemanD000-110.03210—16:08
89M. BoedkerL011+120.1511010015:55
15Z. SmithC022+210.000004814:59
36C. WhiteC000000.082205014:05
10T. PyattL000000.001401412:31
56M. PaajarviL000000.00000—12:26
59A. FormentonL000+120.15200—12:22
28P. CareyC000000.00010007:03
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(W)37343.9193.28+0.2860:00

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).