Islanders at Red Wings 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

New York Islanders

Detroit Red Wings

▸2

FinalTV FS-D, MSG+·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the New York Islanders 2-1. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Andreas Athanasiou's goal at 9:57 of the second period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 53% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.7 to 1.9; shots on goal were NYI 42, DET 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 79% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 20 of 22 (.909); Jonathan Bernier stopped 41 of 42 (.976), 2.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jonathan Bernier (41 saves, .976), 2. Andreas Athanasiou (2 G), 3. Mathew Barzal.

Three stars

★
J. Bernier41 saves, .976
★★
A. Athanasiou2 G
★★★
M. Barzal

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	116	014	012	142
DET	17	15	010	222

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

A. Athanasiou(25)
D. DeKeyser (12)
deflectedxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
0-1
2:59
A. Lee(26)
B. Nelson (24), D. Toews (9)
snapxG 0.16win prob +13 pts
1-1
10:18

2nd period

A. Athanasiou(26)
D. DeKeyser (13), T. Bertuzzi (18)
backhandxG 0.04win prob +19 pts
1-2
9:57

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

8:14Luke Witkowski · Trippingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min
12:02served by A. Beauvillier · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

11:07Mathew Barzal · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min
15:46Niklas Kronwall · Hookingdrawn by Valtteri Filppula2 min

3rd

18:29Cal Clutterbuck · High stickingdrawn by Andreas Athanasiou2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DET

100%

Biggest swing: Andreas Athanasiou, 2nd 9:57 — DET 53% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 1.9 xG · 31 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 3.7 xG · 58 att DET

2 G · 1.9 xG · 31 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.71 G
All situations: 2 G1.9; 2.71 G
Even strength: 2 G1.6; 0.70 G
Power play: 0 G0.3; 0.30 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

79%21%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.72 – 1.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

42
Shots on goal: 22; 43%
Faceoffs: 57%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 37
Hits: 17; 9
Blocked shots: 8; 6
Giveaways: 17; 5
Takeaways: 2

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
13M. BarzalC	0	0	0	+1	8	0.51	0	1	2	17	22:26
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.16	3	0	0	—	21:14
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.13	2	0	0	—	20:48
2N. LeddyD	0	0	0	0	4	0.26	0	0	0	—	20:37
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	3	0	—	19:40
29B. NelsonC	0	1	1	0	1	0.26	1	1	0	45	19:21
27A. LeeL	1	0	1	+1	4	0.41	0	0	0	75	19:20
25D. ToewsD	0	1	1	0	1	0.07	1	1	0	—	19:17
7J. EberleR	0	0	0	+1	3	0.27	0	1	0	—	18:53
18A. BeauvillierR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.24	4	0	0	—	16:02
4T. HickeyD	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	2	1	0	—	16:01
51V. FilppulaC	0	0	0	0	4	0.67	0	0	0	55	15:41
16A. LaddL	0	0	0	-1	3	0.15	2	0	0	—	14:51
12J. BaileyR	0	0	0	0	4	0.18	0	0	0	—	13:03
15C. ClutterbuckR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.17	6	0	2	—	10:19
47L. KomarovR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.10	6	1	0	25	09:48
14T. KuhnhacklR	0	0	0	0	0	0.07	0	0	0	—	09:38
17M. MartinL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	7	0	0	—	08:20

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
1T. Greiss(L)	22	20	2	.909	1.91	-0.09	59:10

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Dec 83@2Final
Dec 153@4SOFinal
Mar 161@2this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score