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Ducks at Avalanche
NHL

Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Anaheim Ducks
▸5
Colorado Avalanche
3
FinalTV FS-W, ALT·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Anaheim Ducks beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-3. The Ducks came back from two goals down. The Ducks led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Corey Perry's goal at 19:03 of the third period, which took the Ducks' chances from 52% to 95%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were ANA 37, COL 44. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. John Gibson stopped 41 of 44 (.932); Semyon Varlamov stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Getzlaf (1 G, 2 A), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 3. Daniel Sprong (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ANA
    R. Getzlaf1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    ANA
    D. Sprong1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ANAANA011312214537
COLCOL216013115344

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(36)
    J. Compher (16), S. Girard (17)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:54
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(31)PPG
    T. Barrie (41), N. MacKinnon (53)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +11 pts
    0-2
    18:10

2nd period

  1. ANA
    C. Perry(4)
    C. Fowler (13), A. Henrique (21)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    6:08
  2. ANA
    R. Getzlaf(13)
    D. Sprong (9), C. Fowler (14)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    7:23
  3. ANA
    D. Sprong(13)
    J. Megna (3), R. Getzlaf (30)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +21 pts
    3-2
    13:40

3rd period

  1. COL
    S. Andrighetto(5)
    I. Cole (11), T. Jost (12)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +30 pts
    3-3
    8:42
  2. ANA
    C. Perry(5)PPG
    N. Ritchie (21), R. Getzlaf (31)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +43 pts
    4-3
    19:03
  3. ANA
    H. Lindholm(6)EN
    J. Manson (13)
    wristxG 0.40win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    19:37

Penalties

ANA 8 PIM·COL 6 PIM

1st

  • 17:49ANARyan Getzlaf · Cross checkingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 18:19ANANick Ritchie · Roughingdrawn by Matt Calvert2 min
  • 18:19COLMatt Calvert · Roughingdrawn by Nick Ritchie2 min

2nd

  • 8:36COLPatrik Nemeth · Slashingdrawn by Devin Shore2 min

3rd

  • 3:21ANACarter Rowney · Trippingdrawn by Ian Cole2 min
  • 10:09ANARyan Getzlaf · Interferencedrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 17:39COLMikko Rantanen · High stickingdrawn by Max Jones2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalANA goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Corey Perry, 3rd 19:03 — ANA 52% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.28N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.18M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.17M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.13A. Agozzino · On goal · xG 0.12S. Andrighetto · Goal · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.10A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.10A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.10N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.10T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.09T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.08C. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.07J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.07C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.05D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.05C. Soderberg · Missed · xG 0.05I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.05C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.04T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.04N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.03M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.02C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Agozzino · On goal · xG 0.01S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · Missed · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.00S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.00
COL3 G · 2.8 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ANAvsCOL
2.54 G
All situations
3 G2.8
1.63 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ANA35%65%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.03 – 2.84

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ANAvsCOL
37
Shots on goal
44
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/2
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
36
Hits
31
15
Blocked shots
12
4
Giveaways
7
8
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Anaheim Ducks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
47H. LindholmD101030.43120—26:43
42J. MansonD011010.05620—24:02
4C. FowlerD022+210.03220—23:26
67R. RakellR000+140.18000—19:49
32J. LarssonD000+220.04220—19:14
33J. SilfverbergR000+120.070002518:44
14A. HenriqueC011000.043004517:04
15R. GetzlafC123+240.203244016:41
61T. TerryR000030.20000—16:12
29D. ShoreC000020.062105016:02
37N. RitchieL011+140.44402—13:48
10C. PerryR202030.38110—13:24
24C. RowneyC000000.0041210012:18
5K. HolzerD000000.00500—12:00
38D. GrantC000010.021003811:33
49M. JonesL000000.00100—11:22
43J. MegnaD011020.15020—11:12
11D. SprongR112+150.18100—10:24
Anaheim Ducks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Gibson(W)44413.9322.85-0.1559:41

Season series

ANA leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).