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Avalanche at Ducks
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
Anaheim Ducks
3
Final/OTTV PRIME, ALT·Honda Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Anaheim Ducks 4-3 in overtime, Mikko Rantanen scoring at 4:58. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. The Ducks led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikko Rantanen's goal at 4:58 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.6 to 2.5; shots on goal were COL 42, ANA 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.5 goals below expected; Ryan Miller stopped 38 of 42 (.905). Three stars: 1. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 2 A), 2. Brandon Montour (1 G, 2 A), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    ANA
    B. Montour1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL01121711113442
ANAANA192120903333

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. ANA
    B. Montour(2)
    P. Aberg (2), N. Ritchie (3)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:45

2nd period

  1. COL
    S. Andrighetto(2)
    P. Nemeth (2), V. Kamenev (2)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    2:17
  2. ANA
    R. Getzlaf(5)PPG
    A. Henrique (6), B. Montour (6)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    3:23
  3. ANA
    O. Kase(1)
    B. Montour (7), R. Getzlaf (9)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    4:34
  4. COL
    N. MacKinnon(13)PPG
    T. Barrie (16), M. Rantanen (23)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    18:05

3rd period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(13)
    N. MacKinnon (15), M. Rantanen (24)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +32 pts
    3-3
    11:20

Overtime

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(8)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (16), G. Landeskog (9)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +51 pts
    4-3
    4:58

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·ANA 4 PIM

2nd

  • 2:58COLNikita Zadorov · Holdingdrawn by Kiefer Sherwood2 min
  • 10:12COLGabriel Landeskog · Interferencedrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
  • 16:41ANABrandon Montour · Interferencedrawn by Marko Dano2 min

3rd

  • 3:54COLAlexander Kerfoot · Hookingdrawn by Andy Welinski2 min

OT

  • 4:45ANAPontus Aberg · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ANA goalCOL goalFinal: ANA 0%

Biggest swing: Mikko Rantanen, OT 4:58 — COL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.22A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.19O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.14O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.14J. Silfverberg · On goal · xG 0.12R. Kesler · On goal · xG 0.11B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.10J. Mahura · On goal · xG 0.09A. Welinski · On goal · xG 0.09O. Kase · Goal · xG 0.08A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.08J. Silfverberg · Missed · xG 0.08R. Getzlaf · On goal · xG 0.08J. Silfverberg · On goal · xG 0.07B. Montour · Goal · xG 0.07M. Pettersson · Missed · xG 0.07R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.06R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.06N. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.06R. Getzlaf · Goal · xG 0.05R. Getzlaf · On goal · xG 0.04B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.04P. Aberg · On goal · xG 0.04R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.03R. Kesler · On goal · xG 0.03R. Getzlaf · Missed · xG 0.03J. Mahura · On goal · xG 0.03R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.02A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · Missed · xG 0.02O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.02B. Gibbons · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · Missed · xG 0.02N. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.02A. Welinski · On goal · xG 0.02J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.01J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01N. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.01A. Welinski · On goal · xG 0.01O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.01P. Aberg · On goal · xG 0.00
ANA3 G · 2.5 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsANA
3.64 G
All situations
3 G2.5
3.42 G
Even strength
2 G2.2
0.22 G
Power play
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL68%32%ANA

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.54 – 2.45

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsANA
42
Shots on goal
33
41%
Faceoffs
59%
2/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
27
Hits
16
11
Blocked shots
24
17
Giveaways
18
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
29N. MacKinnonC123+170.980003825:43
6E. JohnsonD000040.12320—25:39
92G. LandeskogL112+150.431124525:24
28I. ColeD000000.07220—24:16
96M. RantanenR123+130.34100—24:13
4T. BarrieD011070.20210—24:13
49S. GirardD000020.14000—21:22
34C. SoderbergC000-140.481005618:36
11M. CalvertL000-100.002105016:24
16N. ZadorovD000010.01312—14:34
17T. JostC000000.08010013:49
12P. NemethD011030.14110—13:30
13A. KerfootC000-100.010022713:21
15S. DriesC000-110.1730010013:08
10S. AndrighettoR101030.23210—11:48
57G. BourqueL000010.10100—09:47
91V. KamenevC011+110.101005008:35
56M. DanoC000000.00400006:20
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(W)33303.9092.46-0.5464:58

Season series

ANA leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).