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Lightning at Red Wings
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
Detroit Red Wings
4
FinalTV FS-D, SUN·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-4. The Lightning came back from three goals down. The Red Wings led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Johnson's goal at 8:50 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 48% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.5 to 2.8; shots on goal were TBL 39, DET 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.2 goals below expected; Jimmy Howard stopped 34 of 39 (.872), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (2 G, 2 A), 2. Steven Stamkos (1 G, 1 A), 3. Darren Helm (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    D. Helm1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL012113414539
DETDET26111110427

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    M. Bowey(2)
    C. Ehn (6), M. Rasmussen (9)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    2:20
  2. DET
    D. Helm(7)SHG
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    10:24

2nd period

  1. DET
    J. Abdelkader(6)
    L. Glendening (12)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    3:43
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(35)PPG
    J. Miller (25), N. Kucherov (79)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +6 pts
    1-3
    12:57

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(38)
    S. Stamkos (46), N. Kucherov (80)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    1:46
  2. TBL
    N. Kucherov(34)PPG
    V. Hedman (36), B. Point (47)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +23 pts
    3-3
    8:24
  3. TBL
    T. Johnson(25)
    E. Cernak (10), O. Palat (22)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +31 pts
    4-3
    8:50
  4. TBL
    N. Kucherov(35)
    B. Point (48)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +10 pts
    5-3
    16:38
  5. DET
    M. Rasmussen(8)
    T. Vanek (20), F. Zadina (2)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +7 pts
    5-4
    18:18

Penalties

TBL 6 PIM·DET 6 PIM

1st

  • 9:09DETserved by F. Zadina · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 5:27TBLBraydon Coburn · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
  • 12:08DETFilip Hronek · Interferencedrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min

3rd

  • 3:23TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
  • 8:20DETLuke Witkowski · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 12:25TBLJ.T. Miller · Delaying game bench2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTBL goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Tyler Johnson, 3rd 8:50 — TBL 48% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rasmussen · Goal · xG 0.34M. Rasmussen · Missed · xG 0.24A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.20D. Helm · Goal · xG 0.18M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.18J. Abdelkader · Goal · xG 0.16M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.15T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.14F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.13F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.13T. Daley · On goal · xG 0.12J. Abdelkader · Missed · xG 0.12F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.10T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.08T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.07F. Hronek · Missed · xG 0.07D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.07J. Abdelkader · On goal · xG 0.05T. Vanek · Missed · xG 0.05F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.04D. DeKeyser · On goal · xG 0.03F. Zadina · Missed · xG 0.03M. Bowey · Goal · xG 0.02T. Vanek · On goal · xG 0.02F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.02A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.01D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.01F. Hronek · Missed · xG 0.01J. Abdelkader · On goal · xG 0.01T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.01F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.01F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.01M. Bowey · On goal · xG 0.01J. Abdelkader · On goal · xG 0.00T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.00
DET4 G · 2.8 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsDET
4.55 G
All situations
4 G2.8
2.73 G
Even strength
3 G1.2
0.92 G
Power play
0 G1.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL63%37%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.57 – 2.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsDET
39
Shots on goal
27
51%
Faceoffs
49%
2/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
28
Hits
20
15
Blocked shots
18
11
Giveaways
13
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011070.34000—23:18
27R. McDonaghD000000.02330—22:37
98M. SergachevD000010.06230—21:12
81E. CernakD011030.06430—21:01
86N. KucherovR224+150.62110—20:58
21B. PointC123+111.100004320:19
91S. StamkosC112+130.231106220:05
10J. MillerC011-120.411001415:42
9T. JohnsonC101040.211007115:09
55B. CoburnD000-110.07112—14:36
71A. CirelliC000010.071101414:25
44J. RuttaD000010.08000—14:21
17A. KillornL000000.22000—14:01
18O. PalatL011050.46100—13:00
37Y. GourdeC000-200.1130010011:45
13C. PaquetteC000-230.303006411:16
7M. JosephR000010.12410—10:53
73A. ErneL000-210.00210—09:22
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)27234.8522.82-1.1860:00

Season series

TBL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).