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Oilers at Sabres
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Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres

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Edmonton Oilers
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
3
FinalTV NHLN, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3. The Oilers came back from two goals down. The Oilers led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Brodziak's goal at 19:55 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 47% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were EDM 27, BUF 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Mikko Koskinen stopped 35 of 38 (.921); Linus Ullmark stopped 16 of 20 (.800), 2.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jack Eichel (2 G), 2. Darnell Nurse (1 G, 1 A), 3. Connor McDavid (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Eichel2 G
  2. ★★
    EDM
    D. Nurse1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    C. McDavid2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM1731307427
BUFBUF314012012338

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(41)SHG
    C. McDavid (58), D. Nurse (26)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    1:28
  2. BUF
    J. Eichel(24)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (34), J. Skinner (22)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +10 pts
    1-1
    2:42
  3. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(10)
    S. Wilson (1), J. Pominville (13)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    13:29
  4. BUF
    J. Eichel(25)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.16win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    17:24

2nd period

  1. EDM
    Z. Kassian(11)
    C. McDavid (59), K. Russell (12)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    16:29
  2. EDM
    D. Nurse(8)
    L. Draisaitl (42), S. Gagner (3)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +22 pts
    3-3
    18:46
  3. EDM
    K. Brodziak(5)
    A. Larsson (14), M. Lucic (12)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +24 pts
    4-3
    19:55

Penalties

EDM 6 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

1st

  • 0:53EDMAlex Chiasson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 5:58BUFMarco Scandella · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:24EDMOscar Klefbom · High stickingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min

3rd

  • 19:14EDMLeon Draisaitl · Interferencedrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 19:57BUFJeff Skinner · Holding the stickdrawn by Adam Larsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalEDM goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Kyle Brodziak, 2nd 19:55 — EDM 47% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.16J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.14J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.13J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.12S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.12E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.12K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.12J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.10C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.10S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.10C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.09E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.09K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.08C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.08S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.07B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.07J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.07R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.05R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.05C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.05C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.05R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.05E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.05C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.02M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.02J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.02S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Hunwick · On goal · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.00C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.00J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.8 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsBUF
2.54 G
All situations
3 G2.8
1.73 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM33%67%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.87 – 2.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsBUF
27
Shots on goal
38
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/1
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
21
Hits
15
14
Blocked shots
12
6
Giveaways
9
1
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
29L. DraisaitlC112+120.310027324:03
4K. RussellD011+100.00140—23:11
77O. KlefbomD000010.10222—23:00
25D. NurseD112+130.15210—22:34
6A. LarssonD011050.10110—21:58
97C. McDavidC022+110.670005021:32
39A. ChiassonR000+130.33212—19:43
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC000+110.080005018:55
44Z. KassianR101040.35200—18:37
2A. SekeraD000+120.02000—15:40
89S. GagnerC011010.11000013:28
22T. RiederL000000.00310—12:57
83M. BenningD000+100.00010—12:55
28K. BrodziakC101010.091106311:12
27M. LucicL011+100.00310—10:37
12C. CaveC000010.011106709:53
43J. CurrieR000+110.07300—07:41
8T. RattieR000-110.11000—07:29
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
19M. Koskinen(W)38353.9212.78-0.2260:00

Season series

EDM leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).