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Sabres at Oilers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Edmonton Oilers
▸7
FinalTV MSG-B, TVAS·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Buffalo Sabres 7-2. The Sabres scored first; the Oilers answered. The Oilers led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor McDavid's goal at 0:24 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 69% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were BUF 43, EDM 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 11 of 13 (.846), 0.7 goals below expected; Mikko Koskinen stopped 41 of 43 (.953), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Zack Kassian (2 G), 2. Milan Lucic (2 G), 3. Mikko Koskinen (41 saves, .953).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    Z. Kassian2 G
  2. ★★
    EDM
    M. Lucic2 G
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    M. Koskinen41 saves, .953

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF215014014243
EDMEDM3821027725

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(7)
    C. Sheary (11), R. Dahlin (21)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    1:00
  2. EDM
    Z. Kassian(3)
    K. Brodziak (3), T. Rieder (8)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    2:33
  3. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(15)
    C. Jones (4)
    tip-inxG 0.16win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    3:23
  4. EDM
    Z. Kassian(4)
    T. Rieder (9), M. Koskinen (1)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    4:28
  5. BUF
    E. Rodrigues(3)
    V. Sobotka (6), R. Ristolainen (23)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    8:57

2nd period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(28)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    0:24
  2. EDM
    M. Lucic(3)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.16win prob +9 pts
    2-5
    4:49

3rd period

  1. EDM
    M. Lucic(4)
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (27), A. Larsson (12)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +2 pts
    2-6
    3:50
  2. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(24)PPG
    C. McDavid (41), D. Nurse (17)
    wristxG 0.39
    2-7
    5:16

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·EDM 8 PIM

1st

  • 9:55EDMMatt Benning · Hookingdrawn by Conor Sheary2 min

2nd

  • 16:47EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins · Trippingdrawn by Linus Ullmark2 min

3rd

  • 4:52BUFRasmus Dahlin · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:15EDMJujhar Khaira · Holdingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
  • 13:24EDMMatt Benning · Cross checkingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalBUF goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Connor McDavid, 2nd 0:24 — EDM 69% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.39Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.26Z. Kassian · Goal · xG 0.17R. Nugent-Hopkins · Goal · xG 0.16M. Lucic · Goal · xG 0.16C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.15L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.14Z. Kassian · Goal · xG 0.13C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.12J. Puljujarvi · Missed · xG 0.12M. Lucic · Goal · xG 0.12L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.11C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.09J. Khaira · On goal · xG 0.07A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.07M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.07C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06J. Khaira · On goal · xG 0.05A. Chiasson · Missed · xG 0.04D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.04J. Khaira · On goal · xG 0.03M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.03M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.03R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.02M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.01D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01
EDM7 G · 2.8 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsEDM
3.12 G
All situations
7 G2.8
2.82 G
Even strength
6 G2.2
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF56%44%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.10 – 2.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsEDM
43
Shots on goal
25
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/4
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
8
26
Hits
25
6
Blocked shots
15
16
Giveaways
17
11
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD011060.44102—22:46
55R. RistolainenD011-120.05310—22:42
19J. McCabeD000-200.03400—20:33
4Z. BogosianD000-120.02010—19:56
53J. SkinnerL000-270.810002018:33
9J. EichelC000-230.210004217:42
23S. ReinhartC000-230.40400017:05
82N. BeaulieuD000-250.14210—16:43
72T. ThompsonC000-120.3620010016:15
43C. ShearyL011-110.07100—15:49
6M. ScandellaD000-230.11000—15:20
21K. OkposoR000-120.241005015:12
37C. MittelstadtC101-120.092004014:39
22J. LarssonL000-110.012104414:05
71E. RodriguesC101010.110006313:34
29J. PominvilleR000020.03100—13:07
17V. SobotkaC011010.011206712:50
28Z. GirgensonsC000-100.00200012:48
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark13112.8461.29-0.7135:08
40C. Hutton(L)1275.5831.48-3.5224:49

Season series

EDM leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).