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Senators at Lightning
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
1
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
FinalTV SUN, TVAS2·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Ottawa Senators 5-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Erik Cernak's goal at 3:15 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 70% to 84%. Expected goals were close — OTT 2.6, TBL 2.6; shots on goal were OTT 37, TBL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 29 of 34 (.853), 2.4 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 36 of 37 (.973), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Erik Cernak (1 G, 1 A), 2. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 1 A), 3. Alex Killorn (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    E. Cernak1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Killorn2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11609012137
TBLTBL29211114534

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    V. Hedman(9)
    A. Cirelli (14), D. Girardi (10)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    7:17
  2. TBL
    R. McDonagh(7)
    E. Cernak (8), N. Kucherov (75)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    8:51
  3. OTT
    A. Duclair(13)
    B. Gibbons (5), M. Boedker (24)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    9:28

2nd period

  1. TBL
    E. Cernak(3)
    A. Killorn (19), B. Coburn (14)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    3:15
  2. TBL
    N. Kucherov(31)
    V. Hedman (32), A. Erne (10)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +8 pts
    1-4
    15:27

3rd period

  1. TBL
    M. Sergachev(5)
    B. Coburn (15), A. Killorn (20)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +2 pts
    1-5
    1:59

Penalties

OTT 8 PIM·TBL 8 PIM

1st

  • 14:43TBLOndrej Palat · Slashingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 17:42TBLNikita Kucherov · Hookingdrawn by Brian Gibbons2 min

2nd

  • 5:06TBLNikita Kucherov · Ps slash on breakawaydrawn by Bobby Ryan0 min
  • 7:12OTTZack Smith · Roughingdrawn by J.T. Miller2 min
  • 7:12TBLJ.T. Miller · Roughingdrawn by Zack Smith2 min
  • 10:22TBLMathieu Joseph · Interferencedrawn by Brian Gibbons2 min
  • 11:59OTTThomas Chabot · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 16:01OTTBobby Ryan · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

3rd

  • 16:24OTTserved by A. Duclair · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalOTT goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Erik Cernak, 2nd 3:15 — TBL 70% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Paquette · Missed · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.12B. Point · On goal · xG 0.12R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.12N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.12E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.11T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.10R. McDonagh · Goal · xG 0.10A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.09O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.09M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.09B. Point · Missed · xG 0.08C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.08A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.07V. Hedman · Goal · xG 0.07B. Point · On goal · xG 0.06A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.05Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.05R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.05C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.04A. Erne · Missed · xG 0.04R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.04B. Coburn · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · Goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.03E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.03D. Girardi · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Goal · xG 0.02D. Girardi · On goal · xG 0.02D. Girardi · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.02D. Girardi · On goal · xG 0.02A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.01D. Girardi · Missed · xG 0.01
TBL5 G · 2.6 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTBL
2.61 G
All situations
5 G2.6
1.71 G
Even strength
5 G2.3
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.40 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT49%51%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.49 – 2.56

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTBL
37
Shots on goal
34
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/3
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
8
20
Hits
32
15
Blocked shots
15
4
Giveaways
11
7
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000-120.13012—23:49
5C. CeciD000-220.17220—23:05
2D. DeMeloD000-120.25220—21:08
71C. TierneyC000-110.041104118:28
67B. HarpurD000-100.00010—18:26
36C. WhiteC000-310.020008917:09
83C. JarosD000-120.05200—16:45
44J. PageauC000-430.083106715:43
38R. BalcersL000-110.0501010015:08
7B. TkachukL000-470.590102015:05
74M. BorowieckiD000-210.01310—15:01
15Z. SmithC000040.221128314:14
89M. BoedkerL011030.20100—13:59
17B. GibbonsC011+110.153001413:37
56M. PaajarviL000020.10010—13:36
10A. DuclairL101+110.10100—13:31
9B. RyanR000-130.39112—12:09
24O. LindbergL000010.010104411:15
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)34295.8532.57-2.4359:52

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).