Capitals at Islanders 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Washington Capitals

▸3

New York Islanders

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Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the New York Islanders 3-1. The Islanders scored first; the Capitals answered. The Islanders led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jakub Vrana's goal at 3:26 of the third period, which took the Capitals' chances from 23% to 48%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.6 to 2.3; shots on goal were WSH 28, NYI 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Braden Holtby stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Thomas Greiss stopped 26 of 28 (.929). Three stars: 1. Alex Ovechkin (1 G), 2. Nicklas Backstrom (1 A), 3. Thomas Greiss (26 saves, .929).

Three stars

★
A. Ovechkin1 G
★★
N. Backstrom1 A
★★★
T. Greiss26 saves, .929

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	012	07	39	328
NYI	19	04	08	121

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

T. Kuhnhackl(4)
Unassisted
backhandxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
0-1
2:43

3rd period

J. Vrana(19)
N. Backstrom (46), M. Kempny (15)
wristxG 0.19win prob +25 pts
1-1
3:26
A. Ovechkin(45)PPG
T. Oshie (21), E. Kuznetsov (42)
wristxG 0.07win prob +21 pts
2-1
4:34
T. Oshie(21)
Unassisted
win prob +7 pts
3-1
18:32

Penalties

6 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

3:47Alex Ovechkin · Interferencedrawn by Adam Pelech2 min

2nd

2:53Brett Connolly · Trippingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

3rd

4:21Anders Lee · Interferencedrawn by Nicklas Backstrom2 min
8:11Anthony Beauvillier · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Braden Holtby2 min
8:26John Carlson · High stickingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
9:58Ryan Pulock · Trippingdrawn by Alex Ovechkin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

Biggest swing: Jakub Vrana, 3rd 3:26 — WSH 23% → 48%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.6 xG · 29 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.3 xG · 43 att NYI

1 G · 2.6 xG · 29 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.33 G
All situations: 1 G2.6; 2.12 G
Even strength: 1 G1.7; 0.21 G
Power play: 0 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

45%55%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 2.56

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

28
Shots on goal: 21; 56%
Faceoffs: 44%; 1/3
Power play: 0/2; 6
Penalty minutes: 6; 28
Hits: 36; 11
Blocked shots: 25; 12
Giveaways: 18; 5
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Washington Capitals skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
74J. CarlsonD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.03	0	2	2	—	23:20
2M. NiskanenD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	5	2	0	—	22:41
6M. KempnyD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.07	2	1	0	—	20:54
43T. WilsonR	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	3	2	0	50	20:23
8A. OvechkinL	1	0	1	0	5	0.69	2	0	2	—	19:59
9D. OrlovD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.04	3	0	0	—	18:51
19N. BackstromC	0	1	1	+2	2	0.06	3	0	0	68	18:19
92E. KuznetsovC	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	31	18:10
77T. OshieR	1	1	2	+2	3	0.22	2	0	0	25	17:38
3N. JensenD	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	0	0	0	—	16:40
44B. OrpikD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	16:06
20L. EllerC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.17	1	1	0	60	15:45
62C. HagelinL	0	0	0	-1	3	0.30	1	1	0	—	14:39
13J. VranaL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.30	2	0	0	—	14:09
10B. ConnollyR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	2	—	12:47
26N. DowdC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.12	1	0	0	83	09:31
65A. BurakovskyL	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	0	—	07:32
72T. BoydC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	0	1	0	100	06:36

Washington Capitals goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
70B. Holtby(W)	21	20	1	.952	2.60	+1.60	60:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Washington Capitals at New York Islanders

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score