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St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars

FinalTV FS-MW, FS-SW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the St. Louis Blues 5-2. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jamie Benn's goal at 3:46 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.5 to 2.4; shots on goal were STL 45, DAL 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 79% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 2.4 goals below expected; Anton Khudobin stopped 43 of 45 (.956), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jamie Benn (2 G), 2. Anton Khudobin (43 saves, .956), 3. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Benn2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    A. Khudobin43 saves, .956
  3. ★★★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL012218015245
DALDAL084819525

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. DAL
    wristxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    3:46
  2. DAL
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    8:53
  3. DAL
    snapxG 0.14win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    9:58
  4. STL
    wristxG 0.20win prob +8 pts
    1-3
    12:57
  5. DAL
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +7 pts
    1-4
    15:56
  6. STL
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +6 pts
    2-4
    19:37

3rd period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(26)EN
    wristxG 0.78
    2-5
    19:16

Penalties

STL 13 PIM·DAL 13 PIM

1st

  • 11:36STLJay Bouwmeester · Hookingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
  • 18:06DALJason Spezza · High stickingdrawn by Vladimir Tarasenko2 min

2nd

  • 10:54STLJay Bouwmeester · Interferencedrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
  • 11:48STLColton Parayko · Fightingdrawn by Brett Ritchie5 min
  • 11:48DALBrett Ritchie · Fightingdrawn by Colton Parayko5 min
  • 11:48DALBrett Ritchie · Roughingdrawn by Colton Parayko2 min

3rd

  • 1:09DALJoel L'Esperance · Interferencedrawn by Oskar Sundqvist2 min
  • 5:29STLJaden Schwartz · Slashingdrawn by Blake Comeau2 min
  • 6:48DALMiro Heiskanen · High stickingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min
  • 14:08STLserved by V. Tarasenko · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalSTL goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Jamie Benn, 2nd 3:46 — DAL 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.78B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.23J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.19R. Faksa · Goal · xG 0.15A. Radulov · Goal · xG 0.14T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.12J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.10R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.08R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.08J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.08J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.08T. Fedun · On goal · xG 0.06T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.05T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.05B. Comeau · Missed · xG 0.04J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.04A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.03J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.02B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.01T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.01T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oleksiak · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.00J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL5 G · 2.4 xG · 29 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsDAL
3.52 G
All situations
4 G2.4
2.51 G
Even strength
4 G1.4
0.61 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL79%21%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.37 – 1.63

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsDAL
45
Shots on goal
25
59%
Faceoffs
41%
1/4
Power play
0/4
13
Penalty minutes
13
21
Hits
30
13
Blocked shots
20
10
Giveaways
14
2
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27A. PietrangeloD000-330.16100—24:46
90R. O'ReillyC112-150.320105322:28
29V. DunnD000-130.36020—19:25
17J. SchwartzL011-130.35202—19:01
55C. ParaykoD000040.10325—18:50
91V. TarasenkoR101-120.23310—18:06
6J. EdmundsonD000-350.12320—18:02
19J. BouwmeesterD011030.17234—17:49
21T. BozakC000-120.270008817:03
20A. SteenL000010.14010—16:28
70O. SundqvistC000-150.541104416:02
41R. BortuzzoD000010.20300—15:48
18R. ThomasC000-210.14000015:02
7P. MaroonL000-120.08100—14:26
12Z. SanfordL000-100.00000—13:00
15R. FabbriC000-220.12100011:00
49I. BarbashevL000-120.180008010:35
62M. MacEachernL000-210.02100—06:48
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(L)24204.8331.63-2.3757:21

Season series

DAL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).