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Predators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
0
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-TN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-0. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was P.K. Subban's goal at 13:11 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 68% to 85%. Expected goals were close — NSH 2.4, TOR 2.4; shots on goal were NSH 32, TOR 18. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 18 of 18 (1.000), 2.4 goals saved above expected; Michael Hutchinson stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Pekka Rinne (18 saves, 1.000), 2. Mattias Ekholm (1 G, 1 A), 3. Kevin Fiala (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    P. Rinne18 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    NSH
    M. Ekholm1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    K. Fiala1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH09212211432
TORTOR070704018

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. NSH
    M. Ekholm(5)PPG
    C. Smith (11), K. Fiala (17)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    4:08
  2. NSH
    P. Subban(4)
    M. Irwin (4), N. Bonino (10)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    13:11

3rd period

  1. NSH
    C. Sissons(8)
    C. Jarnkrok (8), R. Ellis (16)
    backhandxG 0.41win prob +1 pts
    3-0
    17:23
  2. NSH
    K. Fiala(8)
    C. Sissons (10), M. Ekholm (25)
    wristxG 0.11
    4-0
    19:22

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 19:42NSHRyan Johansen · Trippingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

2nd

  • 3:11TORNikita Zaitsev · Interferencedrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min
  • 8:12NSHMatt Irwin · Holdingdrawn by Par Lindholm2 min

3rd

  • 4:33TORPar Lindholm · Trippingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 6:58NSHRoman Josi · Hookingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalNSH goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: P.K. Subban, 2nd 13:11 — NSH 68% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
F. Gauthier · Missed · xG 0.14J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.14N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.12C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.12A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.11F. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.09N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.08P. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.08P. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.07P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.07K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.06K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.06A. Johnsson · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.05C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.04M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.02T. Moore · Missed · xG 0.02J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.02I. Ozhiganov · Missed · xG 0.01J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.01J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR0 G · 2.4 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsTOR
2.44 G
All situations
0 G2.4
2.33 G
Even strength
0 G1.8
0.11 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH51%49%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.38 – 2.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsTOR
32
Shots on goal
18
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
31
Hits
18
23
Blocked shots
15
8
Giveaways
13
10
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
14M. EkholmD112+120.05520—24:25
4R. EllisD011+100.02230—23:41
59R. JosiD000+160.24012—21:55
76P. SubbanD101+240.10320—19:42
5D. HamhuisD000000.00010—17:40
13N. BoninoC011+100.000404216:52
92R. JohansenC000010.102026416:40
33V. ArvidssonL000050.19000—16:09
15C. SmithC011+220.2013010015:41
10C. SissonsC112+220.434105515:33
19C. JarnkrokC011+210.17100015:11
51A. WatsonL000+120.17400—14:12
9F. ForsbergL000030.21210—13:54
22K. FialaL112+110.11200—13:51
52M. IrwinD011+100.00322—13:39
38R. HartmanR000010.10200—12:32
23R. GrimaldiR000010.14010—11:34
89F. GaudreauC000010.160205710:49
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(W)181801.0002.36+2.3660:00

Season series

NSH leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).