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Senators at Flyers
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Philadelphia Flyers
3
FinalTV NBCSP, TSN5·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Philadelphia Flyers 4-3. The Senators came back from two goals down. The Flyers led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matt Duchene's goal at 17:01 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 48% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Flyers, 2.6 to 1.7; shots on goal were OTT 24, PHI 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Mike McKenna stopped 34 of 37 (.919); Anthony Stolarz stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 2.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brady Tkachuk (2 G, 1 A), 2. Matt Duchene (1 G), 3. Claude Giroux (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Duchene1 G
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    C. Giroux1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT160939424
PHIPHI111216010337

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    T. Konecny(7)
    C. Giroux (21), I. Provorov (6)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:23
  2. OTT
    T. Chabot(7)
    M. Stone (16), B. Tkachuk (7)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +4 pts
    1-1
    5:51

2nd period

  1. PHI
    J. Voracek(6)
    I. Provorov (7), S. Laughton (2)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    3:22
  2. PHI
    R. Gudas(1)
    S. Laughton (3), O. Lindblom (7)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    6:00

3rd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(8)
    M. Stone (17), C. White (8)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    2-3
    11:32
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(9)
    T. Chabot (22), C. White (9)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +35 pts
    3-3
    13:26
  3. OTT
    M. Duchene(11)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.04win prob +42 pts
    4-3
    17:01

Penalties

OTT 5 PIM·PHI 11 PIM

1st

  • 5:13PHIDale Weise · Fightingdrawn by Ben Harpur5 min
  • 5:13OTTBen Harpur · Fightingdrawn by Dale Weise5 min
  • 6:59PHIRobert Hagg · Interferencedrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 13:37PHIJordan Weal · Cross checkingdrawn by Dylan DeMelo2 min

2nd

  • 17:29PHIJames van Riemsdyk · Trippingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalOTT goalFinal: PHI 0%

Biggest swing: Matt Duchene, 3rd 17:01 — OTT 48% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.22C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.17T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.17S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.17S. Couturier · Missed · xG 0.13O. Lindblom · On goal · xG 0.11C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.10W. Simmonds · Missed · xG 0.10M. Raffl · On goal · xG 0.10S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.08T. Konecny · Goal · xG 0.08J. Voracek · Goal · xG 0.07N. Patrick · On goal · xG 0.07C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.07O. Lindblom · On goal · xG 0.06J. Weal · On goal · xG 0.06N. Patrick · On goal · xG 0.05J. Weal · On goal · xG 0.05J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.05J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.05S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.05N. Patrick · On goal · xG 0.04W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.04J. Weal · Missed · xG 0.04C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.03J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.03J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.03T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.03A. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.03C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.03I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.02T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.02T. Sanheim · Missed · xG 0.02S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hagg · Missed · xG 0.02S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.02A. MacDonald · Missed · xG 0.01R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.01J. Voracek · Missed · xG 0.01I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.01R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.01J. Voracek · Missed · xG 0.01R. Gudas · Missed · xG 0.01A. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.01N. Patrick · On goal · xG 0.01S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.01A. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.01R. Gudas · Goal · xG 0.01S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.01J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.01A. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.01J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.00J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.00R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI3 G · 2.6 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsPHI
1.74 G
All situations
3 G2.6
1.64 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT32%68%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.66 – 2.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsPHI
24
Shots on goal
37
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/3
Power play
0/0
5
Penalty minutes
11
18
Hits
19
14
Blocked shots
13
5
Giveaways
7
9
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD112+120.13000—25:12
5C. CeciD000000.00100—21:15
61M. StoneR022+310.40010—20:26
83C. JarosD000+110.02220—19:25
7B. TkachukL213+260.71000—18:37
2D. DeMeloD000030.06300—18:24
18R. DzingelC000+120.172005017:52
58M. LajoieD000-110.03110—16:35
67B. HarpurD000+100.00115—16:34
15Z. SmithC000+110.011006416:07
36C. WhiteC022+300.000102616:07
95M. DucheneC101+110.040104716:03
9B. RyanR000040.10100—15:16
79D. BathersonR000000.00220—13:44
89M. BoedkerL000-120.05010—13:35
71C. TierneyC000-300.001003313:22
10T. PyattL000-100.0001010010:55
56M. PaajarviL000-300.0033010010:31
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33M. McKenna(W)37343.9192.64-0.3660:00

Season series

PHI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).