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Flyers at Sabres
NHL

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Philadelphia Flyers
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV NBCSN, NBCSP+·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Philadelphia Flyers 5-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tage Thompson's goal at 5:20 of the first period, which took the Sabres' chances from 66% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.7 to 2.0; shots on goal were PHI 25, BUF 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Calvin Pickard stopped 8 of 8 (1.000); Carter Hutton stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. Evan Rodrigues (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jake McCabe, 3. Jack Eichel (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    E. Rodrigues1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. McCabe
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Eichel1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PHIPHI072909225
BUFBUF4120514521

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(15)
    J. Pominville (9)
    snapxG 0.36win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:38
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(2)
    V. Sobotka (2), K. Okposo (9)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    5:20
  3. BUF
    E. Rodrigues(1)PPG
    S. Reinhart (13), R. Dahlin (9)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +8 pts
    0-3
    8:55
  4. BUF
    J. Larsson(1)
    E. Rodrigues (7), R. Ristolainen (10)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +5 pts
    0-4
    19:52

2nd period

  1. PHI
    C. Giroux(8)
    S. Couturier (7), T. Konecny (6)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +4 pts
    1-4
    5:26
  2. PHI
    W. Simmonds(9)
    J. Weal (4), T. Sanheim (6)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +7 pts
    2-4
    13:51

3rd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(3)EN
    J. Eichel (20)
    snapxG 0.69win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    18:22

Penalties

PHI 11 PIM·BUF 7 PIM

1st

  • 7:19PHIJordan Weal · Holdingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 19:55BUFJohan Larsson · Fightingdrawn by Scott Laughton5 min
  • 19:55PHIScott Laughton · Fightingdrawn by Johan Larsson5 min

2nd

  • 7:31PHISean Couturier · High stickingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min

3rd

  • 3:19BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Interferencedrawn by Sean Couturier2 min
  • 10:57PHICalvin Pickard · Trippingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPHI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Tage Thompson, 1st 5:20 — BUF 66% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.69J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.60J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.36T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.23E. Rodrigues · Goal · xG 0.19J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.10J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.10J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.06C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.05J. Larsson · Goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.03J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.03R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.02J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · Missed · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 2.7 xG · 29 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsBUF
2.02 G
All situations
4 G2.7
1.72 G
Even strength
3 G1.0
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 64 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI62%38%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.02 – 1.43

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsBUF
25
Shots on goal
21
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/1
Power play
1/3
11
Penalty minutes
7
21
Hits
29
10
Blocked shots
9
6
Giveaways
11
1
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8R. HaggD000010.04210—23:58
9I. ProvorovD000+100.00110—23:20
28C. GirouxR101-160.563005521:06
14S. CouturierC011-120.151122520:40
53S. GostisbehereD000-320.21220—19:49
11T. KonecnyR011030.16000—17:45
26C. FolinD000-110.02010—17:42
93J. VoracekR000-210.0000010016:41
17W. SimmondsR101010.21100—16:40
3R. GudasD000010.00410—16:26
6T. SanheimD011000.00100—16:05
40J. WealC011+120.150128215:09
25J. van RiemsdykL000030.14100—14:36
19N. PatrickC000000.001106713:38
22D. WeiseR000-200.09210—12:53
23O. LindblomL000010.06000—11:35
21S. LaughtonC000-200.102056710:39
15J. LehteraC000-110.14000006:20
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33C. Pickard8801.0000.32+0.3239:22
34A. Lyon(L)1284.6671.13-2.8720:00

Season series

PHI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).