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St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets

Final/OTTV NHLN-US, FS-MW·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the St. Louis Blues 5-4 in overtime, Jacob Trouba scoring at 2:54. The Jets came back from two goals down. The Blues led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jacob Trouba's goal at 2:54 of overtime, which took the Jets' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — STL 2.3, WPG 2.5; shots on goal were STL 34, WPG 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Jake Allen stopped 31 of 36 (.861), 2.5 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mark Scheifele (2 G, 2 A), 2. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 2 A), 3. Jacob Trouba (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    M. Scheifele2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    J. Trouba1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
STLSTL218171504434
WPGWPG1601031713536

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    0:47
  2. STL
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.01win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    10:57
  3. WPG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    12:07

2nd period

  1. STL
    V. Dunn(3)PPG
    wristxG 0.39win prob +14 pts
    3-1
    9:30

3rd period

  1. WPG
    wristxG 0.01win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    1:00
  2. WPG
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +26 pts
    3-3
    3:57
  3. STL
    wristxG 0.06win prob +28 pts
    4-3
    5:11
  4. WPG
    wristxG 0.25win prob +44 pts
    4-4
    18:20

Overtime

  1. WPG
    wristxG 0.10win prob +49 pts
    4-5
    2:54

Penalties

STL 12 PIM·WPG 21 PIM

1st

  • 3:22WPGJosh Morrissey · Holding the stickdrawn by Alexander Steen2 min
  • 11:15STLBrayden Schenn · Holdingdrawn by Adam Lowry2 min
  • 13:33WPGDustin Byfuglien · Trippingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
  • 16:12STLJay Bouwmeester · Interferencedrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min

2nd

  • 2:33STLJordan Kyrou · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Myers2 min
  • 5:06STLJordan Schmaltz · Hookingdrawn by Josh Morrissey2 min
  • 8:35WPGJack Roslovic · Hookingdrawn by Alex Pietrangelo2 min
  • 14:01WPGBrandon Tanev · Boardingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly5 min
  • 14:01WPGBrandon Tanev · Game misconduct10 min
  • 14:16STLVince Dunn · Hookingdrawn by Josh Morrissey2 min

3rd

  • 13:50STLColton Parayko · Interferencedrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalSTL goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Jacob Trouba, OT 2:54 — WPG 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Little · Goal · xG 0.25M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.15J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.13B. Little · On goal · xG 0.13A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.12B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.11K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.11J. Trouba · Goal · xG 0.10J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.09B. Little · On goal · xG 0.08K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.07J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.07M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.07P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.06B. Lemieux · On goal · xG 0.06M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.06B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.05N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.05P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.05M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.05B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.04P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.04P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.04B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.04B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.03B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.03N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.03P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.03A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.03M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.02J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrow · Missed · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.02D. Byfuglien · On goal · xG 0.02J. Trouba · Missed · xG 0.02J. Morrow · Missed · xG 0.01B. Little · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · Missed · xG 0.01B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · Goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.01P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.01B. Little · On goal · xG 0.01P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.01K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.01B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.01D. Byfuglien · Missed · xG 0.01
WPG5 G · 2.5 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsWPG
2.34 G
All situations
5 G2.5
1.53 G
Even strength
4 G1.7
0.91 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL46%54%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.27 – 2.47

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsWPG
34
Shots on goal
36
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/4
Power play
1/5
12
Penalty minutes
21
21
Hits
25
15
Blocked shots
10
12
Giveaways
12
5
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27A. PietrangeloD000-110.03130—24:54
90R. O'ReillyC123+240.500005222:38
6J. EdmundsonD000+140.10640—22:13
19J. BouwmeesterD000-200.00022—20:49
10B. SchennC000-220.302025520:21
21T. BozakC000010.020006020:17
55C. ParaykoD101010.01112—19:40
17J. SchwartzL000-230.09210—19:05
91V. TarasenkoR000-120.14000—18:11
20A. SteenL000010.0503010017:16
57D. PerronL112+250.30100—16:06
7P. MaroonL011010.11100—15:08
29V. DunnD112+150.56202—14:56
43J. SchmaltzD000000.00202—13:02
12Z. SanfordL011+200.08110—11:16
49I. BarbashevL000-110.00000—08:10
9S. BlaisL000-110.02200—07:12
33J. KyrouR000-120.02002—07:03
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34J. Allen(O)36315.8612.51-2.4962:27

Season series

WPG leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).