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Wild at Predators
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
2
Nashville Predators
▸4
FinalTV FS-N, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Minnesota Wild 4-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mattias Ekholm's goal at 3:51 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 51% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.3 to 1.8; shots on goal were MIN 31, NSH 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Alex Stalock stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.7 goals below expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 29 of 31 (.935). Three stars: 1. Kyle Turris (1 A), 2. Filip Forsberg (1 G), 3. Craig Smith (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    K. Turris1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    C. Smith1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN19111011231
NSHNSH11121017428

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    C. Smith(2)PPG
    P. Subban (3), R. Johansen (4)
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:01
  2. MIN
    M. Dumba(2)PPG
    M. Koivu (3), Z. Parise (5)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +10 pts
    1-1
    13:29

2nd period

  1. NSH
    M. Ekholm(2)
    R. Johansen (5)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    3:51
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(4)
    K. Turris (3)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    12:02
  3. MIN
    M. Koivu(1)
    M. Granlund (2), Z. Parise (6)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    15:03

3rd period

  1. NSH
    M. Salomaki(1)EN
    P. Subban (4)
    wristxG 0.93win prob +6 pts
    2-4
    19:49

Penalties

MIN 11 PIM·NSH 13 PIM

1st

  • 0:09NSHViktor Arvidsson · Interferencedrawn by Eric Staal2 min
  • 4:07MINJonas Brodin · Trippingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 13:17NSHRyan Johansen · Interferencedrawn by Eric Staal2 min
  • 19:38MINMikko Koivu · Slashingdrawn by Craig Smith2 min

2nd

  • 1:50NSHRyan Ellis · Holdingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 5:11NSHZac Rinaldo · Fightingdrawn by Matt Hendricks5 min
  • 5:11MINMatt Hendricks · Fightingdrawn by Zac Rinaldo5 min

3rd

  • 3:09MINNick Seeler · Hookingdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min
  • 17:43NSHMiikka Salomaki · Trippingdrawn by Charlie Coyle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalMIN goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Mattias Ekholm, 2nd 3:51 — NSH 51% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Salomaki · Goal · xG 0.92F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.21C. Smith · Goal · xG 0.19R. Ellis · Missed · xG 0.18C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.15V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.13R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.11D. Hamhuis · On goal · xG 0.11M. Ekholm · Goal · xG 0.10R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.08M. Salomaki · On goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.08R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.07K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.06C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.06K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04N. Bonino · Missed · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.04C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.03P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.02K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · Missed · xG 0.02P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01
NSH4 G · 3.3 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsNSH
1.82 G
All situations
3 G3.3
1.51 G
Even strength
2 G1.4
0.31 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN40%60%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.83 – 2.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsNSH
31
Shots on goal
28
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/4
Power play
1/3
11
Penalty minutes
13
20
Hits
9
17
Blocked shots
12
6
Giveaways
11
8
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
20R. SuterD000-230.05020—27:14
24M. DumbaD101050.30430—25:19
46J. SpurgeonD000-110.03000—20:49
9M. KoivuC112010.140026720:31
64M. GranlundC011-150.170005019:18
11Z. PariseL022+140.26110—18:45
12E. StaalC000-320.150004718:19
3C. CoyleC000020.222106717:24
25J. BrodinD000000.00112—17:19
16J. ZuckerL000-230.12200—17:11
21E. FehrC000030.121003614:15
29G. PaterynD000000.01120—14:06
36N. SeelerD000000.04042—14:00
22N. NiederreiterR000-210.18300—13:12
18J. GreenwayL000-110.03000—11:45
17M. FolignoL000000.00220—10:52
15M. HendricksC000000.001155708:56
23J. BrownR000000.00200—06:57
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32A. Stalock(L)27243.8892.35-0.6557:54

Season series

NSH leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).