Predators at Jets 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Nashville Predators

▸2

Winnipeg Jets

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Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Winnipeg Jets 2-1. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Hartman's goal at 17:20 of the first period, which took the Predators' chances from 47% to 62%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 2.9 to 2.4; shots on goal were NSH 29, WPG 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. Pekka Rinne (32 saves, .970), 2. Mattias Ekholm, 3. Bryan Little.

Three stars

★
P. Rinne32 saves, .970
★★
M. Ekholm
★★★
B. Little

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	19	113	07	229
WPG	012	011	110	133

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

R. Hartman(2)
Unassisted
snapxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
1-0
17:20

2nd period

P. Subban(3)PPG
F. Forsberg (7), R. Johansen (6)
slapxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
2-0
14:36

3rd period

P. Laine(3)PPG
P. Stastny (7)
wristxG 0.06win prob +4 pts
2-1
19:09

Penalties

6 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

3:46Roman Josi · Cross checkingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
3:46Patrik Laine · Roughingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
20:00Craig Smith · Trippingdrawn by Adam Lowry2 min

2nd

13:43Dustin Byfuglien · Slashingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min
18:39Adam Lowry · Hookingdrawn by Kyle Turris2 min

3rd

17:58P.K. Subban · Cross checkingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WPG

Biggest swing: Ryan Hartman, 1st 17:20 — NSH 47% → 62%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.9 xG · 49 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.4 xG · 49 att WPG

1 G · 2.9 xG · 49 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.42 G
All situations: 1 G2.9; 2.01 G
Even strength: 0 G2.5; 0.41 G
Power play: 1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

43%57%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.41 – 2.81

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

29
Shots on goal: 33; 42%
Faceoffs: 58%; 1/2
Power play: 1/2; 6
Penalty minutes: 6; 27
Hits: 23; 9
Blocked shots: 6; 12
Giveaways: 19; 10
Takeaways: 2

Box score

every player line

Nashville Predators skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
76P. SubbanD	1	0	1	0	4	0.15	3	0	2	—	25:44
4R. EllisD	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0	1	0	—	25:33
59R. JosiD	0	0	0	0	3	0.08	0	0	2	—	24:45
14M. EkholmD	0	0	0	0	0	0.04	2	1	0	—	23:43
92R. JohansenC	0	1	1	0	3	0.25	1	1	0	50	18:12
9F. ForsbergL	0	1	1	0	2	0.17	0	0	0	—	17:43
33V. ArvidssonL	0	0	0	0	4	0.42	0	0	0	—	17:07
13N. BoninoC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	0	40	16:46
15C. SmithC	0	0	0	0	2	0.20	2	0	2	0	16:18
51A. WatsonL	0	0	0	0	1	0.38	3	0	0	—	15:51
10C. SissonsC	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	3	1	0	50	15:00
12M. FisherC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	2	2	0	53	13:18
38R. HartmanR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.16	0	1	0	—	11:59
8K. TurrisC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	11	11:54
17S. HartnellL	0	0	0	0	3	0.33	4	0	0	—	11:46
20M. SalomakiR	0	0	0	+1	2	0.04	3	0	0	—	11:33
52M. IrwinD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.05	2	2	0	—	09:20
7Y. WeberD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	1	0	0	—	08:32

Nashville Predators goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35P. Rinne(W)	33	32	1	.970	2.90	+1.90	59:44

Series

WPG leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score