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Predators at Avalanche
NHL

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸3
Colorado Avalanche
2
FinalTV NBCSN, FS-TN·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 3-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colton Sissons's goal at 7:18 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 65% to 82%. Expected goals were close — NSH 2.9, COL 2.7; shots on goal were NSH 34, COL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 31 of 33 (.939), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Jonathan Bernier stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Filip Forsberg (1 G, 1 A), 2. Gabriel Landeskog (1 G), 3. Mattias Ekholm (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    G. Landeskog1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    M. Ekholm2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH11521108334
COLCOL08014211233

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(3)
    R. Johansen (3), M. Ekholm (3)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +15 pts
    1-0
    15:33

2nd period

  1. NSH
    C. Sissons(3)
    F. Forsberg (2), M. Ekholm (4)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    7:18
  2. NSH
    C. Smith(2)
    A. Watson (2)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +10 pts
    3-0
    11:49

3rd period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(3)PPG
    T. Jost (1), T. Barrie (3)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +7 pts
    3-1
    5:20
  2. COL
    A. Kerfoot(2)
    M. Nieto (3), N. Zadorov (2)
    wristxG 0.43win prob +14 pts
    3-2
    11:01

Penalties

NSH 14 PIM·COL 10 PIM

1st

  • 0:38COLPatrik Nemeth · Closing hand on puck2 min
  • 1:19COLCarl Soderberg · High stickingdrawn by Nick Bonino2 min

2nd

  • 2:55NSHMatt Irwin · Holdingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 4:31NSHColton Sissons · Delaying game face off violation2 min
  • 9:41NSHRyan Hartman · Roughingdrawn by Sven Andrighetto2 min
  • 9:41NSHRyan Hartman · Holding the stickdrawn by Sven Andrighetto2 min
  • 9:41COLSven Andrighetto · Roughingdrawn by Craig Smith2 min
  • 13:28NSHMattias Ekholm · Slashingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 13:28COLGabriel Landeskog · Roughingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min
  • 19:49COLAlexander Kerfoot · Roughingdrawn by Pekka Rinne2 min

3rd

  • 4:52NSHRyan Hartman · Chargingdrawn by Carl Soderberg2 min
  • 4:52NSHColton Sissons · Trippingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalNSH goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Colton Sissons, 2nd 7:18 — NSH 65% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Kerfoot · Goal · xG 0.43G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.20C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.13N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.13M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.13B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.10S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.09N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.09M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.08C. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.08J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.08T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.07T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.07A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.07M. Barberio · On goal · xG 0.07A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.06S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.05S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.05T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.05J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.05C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.04T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.04J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03M. Barberio · On goal · xG 0.03T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01C. Soderberg · Missed · xG 0.01B. Comeau · Missed · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.01M. Barberio · On goal · xG 0.01C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.01D. Siemens · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Barberio · Missed · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.01M. Barberio · On goal · xG 0.01C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.00
COL2 G · 2.7 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCOL
2.93 G
All situations
2 G2.7
1.93 G
Even strength
1 G1.7
0.30 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH42%58%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.22 – 2.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCOL
34
Shots on goal
33
61%
Faceoffs
39%
0/3
Power play
1/5
14
Penalty minutes
10
30
Hits
36
18
Blocked shots
14
0
Giveaways
8
11
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. EllisD000-110.05210—26:22
76P. SubbanD000+210.72420—25:58
59R. JosiD000-140.20100—24:34
14M. EkholmD022+340.23222—23:42
13N. BoninoC000000.001106418:39
8K. TurrisC000+220.061005816:42
51A. WatsonL011040.17700—16:07
9F. ForsbergL112+130.40100—15:24
10C. SissonsC101+130.203245715:18
33V. ArvidssonL000050.31110—14:26
92R. JohansenC011+100.000006312:54
15C. SmithC101030.1801010012:34
12M. FisherC000+120.222107512:09
22K. FialaL000010.01110—11:51
19C. JarnkrokC000-110.121005011:43
25A. EmelinD000+100.01050—11:24
38R. HartmanR000+100.03116—11:13
52M. IrwinD000000.00202—08:32
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(W)33312.9392.69+0.6960:00

Series

NSH leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).