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Predators at Avalanche
NHL

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
FinalTV NBCSN, FS-TN·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Nashville Predators 5-3. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Gabriel Bourque's goal at 13:24 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 67% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.6 to 1.8; shots on goal were NSH 32, COL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 18 of 18 (1.000), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Jonathan Bernier stopped 29 of 32 (.906), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G), 2. Gabriel Landeskog (1 G, 2 A), 3. Blake Comeau (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    G. Landeskog1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    B. Comeau1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH06112214332
COLCOL31111517533

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    B. Comeau(2)
    C. Soderberg (2), M. Nieto (2)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    1:50
  2. COL
    G. Bourque(2)
    P. Nemeth (1), J. Compher (2)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    13:24
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(2)
    G. Landeskog (2)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    18:07

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(3)
    G. Landeskog (3), M. Rantanen (2)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +4 pts
    0-4
    4:25
  2. NSH
    R. Johansen(2)PPG
    F. Forsberg (1), R. Ellis (1)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +4 pts
    1-4
    10:23

3rd period

  1. NSH
    C. Sissons(2)
    R. Josi (2), R. Ellis (2)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +4 pts
    2-4
    7:12
  2. COL
    G. Landeskog(2)
    M. Rantanen (3), M. Barberio (1)
    wristxG 0.93win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    18:24
  3. NSH
    A. Watson(3)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.01
    3-5
    18:45

Penalties

NSH 16 PIM·COL 12 PIM

1st

  • 7:55COLBlake Comeau · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min
  • 7:55NSHKevin Fiala · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Blake Comeau2 min
  • 14:46NSHKyle Turris · Slashingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 19:11COLTyson Barrie · Cross checkingdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min
  • 20:00COLNikita Zadorov · Roughingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min
  • 20:00NSHAustin Watson · Roughingdrawn by Nikita Zadorov2 min

2nd

  • 6:40NSHRyan Ellis · Cross checkingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 9:27COLNikita Zadorov · Hookingdrawn by Kyle Turris2 min
  • 9:27COLPatrik Nemeth · Cross checkingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min
  • 12:37NSHNick Bonino · Elbowingdrawn by Sven Andrighetto2 min
  • 16:13NSHFilip Forsberg · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Jonathan Bernier2 min
  • 17:16COLNathan MacKinnon · Holdingdrawn by P.K. Subban2 min
  • 17:16NSHP.K. Subban · Holdingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

3rd

  • 2:31NSHMiikka Salomaki · Chargingdrawn by David Warsofsky2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalNSH goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Gabriel Bourque, 1st 13:24 — COL 67% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.93M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.26N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.25C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.20N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.16G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.16C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.10A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.10T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.09C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.09T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.08G. Bourque · Goal · xG 0.08G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.08C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.08C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.08B. Comeau · Goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.06J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05G. Bourque · Missed · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.04C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.04C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.03T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.03M. Barberio · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.02M. Barberio · Missed · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · Missed · xG 0.01G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.01G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.01M. Barberio · On goal · xG 0.01G. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.01G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.01C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.01M. Barberio · Missed · xG 0.00
COL5 G · 3.6 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCOL
1.83 G
All situations
5 G3.6
1.12 G
Even strength
5 G2.0
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH33%67%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.75 – 2.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCOL
32
Shots on goal
33
58%
Faceoffs
42%
1/3
Power play
0/5
16
Penalty minutes
12
38
Hits
32
16
Blocked shots
25
7
Giveaways
6
7
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. EllisD022-310.08112—26:21
59R. JosiD011-340.09120—25:35
76P. SubbanD000-140.11202—24:31
14M. EkholmD000010.12560—21:50
92R. JohansenC101-220.265106320:19
8K. TurrisC000-200.041024218:51
9F. ForsbergL011-160.35412—17:43
33V. ArvidssonL000-330.20000—17:07
15C. SmithC000-220.07100015:31
13N. BoninoC000+110.031124715:29
10C. SissonsC101020.113107315:20
22K. FialaL000-300.03102—14:52
51A. WatsonL101+220.14102—12:45
25A. EmelinD000000.00310—10:53
38R. HartmanR000010.08210—09:30
52M. IrwinD000+100.00010—08:59
12M. FisherC000010.013007508:06
20M. SalomakiR000020.05402—06:19
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros181801.0001.67+1.6733:34
35P. Rinne(L)15114.7331.04-2.9624:25

Series

NSH leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).