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Lightning at Devils
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
1
New Jersey Devils
▸2
FinalTV MSG+ 2, SUN·Prudential Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New Jersey Devils beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1. The Devils scored first and never trailed. The Devils led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Palmieri's goal at 10:59 of the second period, which took the Devils' chances from 72% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.6 to 2.5; shots on goal were TBL 36, NJD 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 31 (.935); Keith Kinkaid stopped 35 of 36 (.972), 2.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Keith Kinkaid (35 saves, .972), 2. Nico Hischier (1 G), 3. Taylor Hall (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NJD
    K. Kinkaid35 saves, .972
  2. ★★
    NJD
    N. Hischier1 G
  3. ★★★
    NJD
    T. Hall1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL014010112136
NJDNJD11111307231

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. NJD
    N. Hischier(18)
    W. Butcher (34), M. Mueller (3)
    backhandxG 0.29win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    17:51

2nd period

  1. NJD
    K. Palmieri(21)
    P. Zacha (15), T. Hall (49)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    10:59

3rd period

  1. TBL
    O. Palat(9)PPG
    M. Sergachev (29), B. Point (34)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    4:22

Penalties

TBL 4 PIM·NJD 6 PIM

1st

  • 18:36NJDJohn Moore · Holdingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min
  • 19:50TBLVictor Hedman · Hookingdrawn by Brian Gibbons2 min

2nd

  • 18:19NJDBrian Gibbons · Hookingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min
  • 18:19TBLJ.T. Miller · Delaying game face off violation2 min

3rd

  • 2:27NJDWill Butcher · Trippingdrawn by Chris Kunitz2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NJD goalTBL goalFinal: NJD 100%

Biggest swing: Kyle Palmieri, 2nd 10:59 — NJD 72% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.43N. Hischier · Goal · xG 0.29N. Hischier · On goal · xG 0.17T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.15T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.13K. Palmieri · Goal · xG 0.12J. Bratt · On goal · xG 0.11D. Severson · On goal · xG 0.10J. Bratt · On goal · xG 0.09B. Boyle · On goal · xG 0.08K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.06N. Hischier · On goal · xG 0.06N. Hischier · On goal · xG 0.06P. Zacha · On goal · xG 0.05B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.05N. Hischier · On goal · xG 0.04J. Moore · On goal · xG 0.04S. Vatanen · On goal · xG 0.03T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.03S. Noesen · On goal · xG 0.03B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.02J. Moore · On goal · xG 0.02P. Zacha · On goal · xG 0.02A. Greene · Missed · xG 0.02W. Butcher · On goal · xG 0.02S. Vatanen · Missed · xG 0.02A. Greene · Missed · xG 0.02T. Zajac · Missed · xG 0.02M. Mueller · On goal · xG 0.02S. Noesen · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.02W. Butcher · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.01S. Vatanen · Missed · xG 0.01D. Severson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Moore · Missed · xG 0.01S. Vatanen · Missed · xG 0.01S. Noesen · On goal · xG 0.01A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.01S. Vatanen · On goal · xG 0.00S. Noesen · On goal · xG 0.00
NJD2 G · 2.5 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNJD
3.61 G
All situations
2 G2.5
3.10 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL74%26%NJD

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.40 – 2.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNJD
36
Shots on goal
31
58%
Faceoffs
42%
1/2
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
6
16
Hits
27
8
Blocked shots
18
4
Giveaways
9
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000020.37012—25:30
86N. KucherovR000030.46100—21:46
21B. PointC011-150.530006321:45
91S. StamkosC000-110.060006320:42
10J. MillerC000030.332025020:12
27R. McDonaghD000-130.25110—18:51
6A. StralmanD000030.05000—18:41
98M. SergachevD011010.04100—18:00
9T. JohnsonC000-150.6220010017:38
37Y. GourdeC000-110.06100016:49
5D. GirardiD000-110.01320—16:38
18O. PalatL101-110.20110—14:13
71A. CirelliC000020.311005414:04
17A. KillornL000-110.04000—13:29
55B. CoburnD000-110.01000—12:38
14C. KunitzL000010.15210—10:34
73A. ErneL000010.02120—09:43
62A. SustrD000-110.04000—06:35
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)31292.9352.02+0.0258:12

Season series

NJD leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).