Bruins at Lightning 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Boston Bruins

▸3

Tampa Bay Lightning

FinalTV SUN, NESN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Boston Bruins beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-0. The Bruins scored first and never trailed. The Bruins led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was David Pastrnak's goal at 3:07 of the first period, which took the Bruins' chances from 46% to 58%. Expected goals favored the Bruins, 2.3 to 1.8; shots on goal were BOS 27, TBL 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Bruins win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Tuukka Rask stopped 23 of 23 (1.000), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tuukka Rask (23 saves, 1.000), 2. Torey Krug (3 A), 3. David Pastrnak (1 G).

Three stars

★
T. Rask23 saves, 1.000
★★
T. Krug3 A
★★★
D. Pastrnak1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	212	18	07	327
TBL	05	09	09	023

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

D. Pastrnak(28)
T. Krug (36), A. McQuaid (2)
backhandxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
1-0
3:07
D. Backes(12)PPG
T. Krug (37), B. Marchand (43)
wristxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
2-0
10:54

2nd period

R. Nash(14)PPG
R. Nash (13), T. Krug (38)
wristxG 0.45win prob +7 pts
3-0
12:33

Penalties

8 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

10:41Steven Stamkos · Interferencedrawn by Tim Schaller2 min

2nd

6:41Brandon Carlo · Trippingdrawn by J.T. Miller2 min
12:23Mikhail Sergachev · High stickingdrawn by Brian Gionta2 min
13:23Noel Acciari · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Andrei Vasilevskiy2 min
13:23Tim Schaller · Roughingdrawn by Jake Dotchin2 min
13:23Jake Dotchin · Roughingdrawn by Tim Schaller2 min
15:50Brandon Carlo · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Johnson2 min

3rd

13:16Victor Hedman · High stickingdrawn by David Pastrnak2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TBL

Biggest swing: David Pastrnak, 1st 3:07 — BOS 46% → 58%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.8 xG · 46 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.3 xG · 37 att TBL

0 G · 1.8 xG · 46 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.33 G
All situations: 0 G1.8; 1.51 G
Even strength: 0 G1.3; 0.72 G
Power play: 0 G0.5; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

58%42%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.23 – 1.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

27
Shots on goal: 23; 56%
Faceoffs: 44%; 2/3
Power play: 0/3; 8
Penalty minutes: 8; 22
Hits: 35; 16
Blocked shots: 9; 8
Giveaways: 10; 8
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Boston Bruins skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
86K. MillerD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	0	—	21:41
44N. HoldenD	0	0	0	0	2	0.20	3	0	0	—	21:26
25B. CarloD	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	2	0	4	—	20:59
47T. KrugD	0	3	3	+1	2	0.07	2	1	0	—	19:37
54A. McQuaidD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	2	2	0	—	19:21
20R. NashC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.55	2	1	0	82	18:30
46D. KrejciC	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	2	0	0	41	17:34
63B. MarchandL	0	1	1	0	1	0.07	0	2	0	100	17:30
48M. GrzelcykD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	17:08
61R. NashL	0	1	1	0	3	0.17	0	2	0	—	15:24
88D. PastrnakR	1	0	1	+1	5	0.23	0	1	0	—	15:04
52S. KuralyC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	25	14:38
12B. GiontaR	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	1	1	0	100	14:27
57T. WingelsC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	0	0	0	14:04
43D. HeinenL	0	0	0	0	3	0.36	0	1	0	100	13:59
55N. AcciariC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	2	1	2	0	13:43
59T. SchallerL	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	1	1	2	—	13:13
42D. BackesR	1	0	1	0	2	0.19	0	1	0	60	05:42

Boston Bruins goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40T. Rask(W)	23	23	0	1.000	1.83	+1.83	60:00

Season series

BOS leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score